Breaking Down the Kansas City Chiefs vs Green Bay Packers Sunday Night Football Odds for DraftKings

My Chiefs are on the road in Green Bay for another prime time slot. Lets see how this breaks down tonight.

Updated: 6:40pm CST

Expectations vs Salary (Draftkings)

The lower owned team is always the underdog - Green Bay in this case. However we see the usage has been higher in Green Bay than KC, where Jordan Love has the highest upside over the past 5 weeks of play. We can likely stack the Watsons, while Wicks appears to be the cheap value play on the slate.

Fanduel Prices

The difference in this matchup is that you must get to the top scorer despite the price on Fanduel. I would recommend either Love or Pat, with a slight lean to Pat because his passing situation is better. It doesnt appear that any other positions typically get enough upside to warrant top scorer.

Vegas Projections

I have Green Bay covering the spread for the most part. One of these two teams will underperform (hopefully Green Bay), but that seems to be the only real edge right now is that they may cover, at home. That would be about 3 TDs worth of points from both teams expected.

Game Flow

It would appear that KC could run or pass with equal success vs GB, while GB is more likely to run with success. Aaron Jones is out though so Jordan Love likely has to pass against the grain.

Defense vs Receivers

The names don't necessarily reflect the roles here. WR1 for KC is in a good spot along with the TE, which is clearly Kelce, but WR1 is not so clear. I'd imagine that is Rice but KC masks the WR roles well. GB is also interesting because Watson hasnt had the targets lately and that appears to be a funnel for WR2, which may actually be Doubs.

When GB has the ball:

For leverage at captain, Love looks like the best bet Reed and Doubs also seem to show some captain leverage too.

As of now there isn't a clear but leverage play because many plays could be captain plays, including Jordan love at the top. We will want to wait and see how ownership shapes up to make this call.

When KC has the ball:

For leverage - Chiefs, Watson and then super long shot but intruiging MVS. Green Bay can be beat by the deep ball, especially with Jaire out. They barely targetted him last week if at all. So maybe they take a shot and the revenge narrative is there. But who really is going to get revenge - him or the teams who paid him?