Updates

We have arrived and coming in hot! If you havent been following along, we have plenty of insights to work with from previous years but also new to this year in this writeup to make things happen. There are lots of different individual views that I post, but I also recommend trying to combine the views that stick out to you the most and try to make the most of a given story. I'll combine my 3 favorite charts at the botton of this writeup to give you my favorite GPP plays. Lets

This is the final week before the majors, which means that we have to be careful of the top names in the pool withdrawing if they have a history of that. Texas is kinda friendly for me in entries because I know the homers tend to have the best course history and becaue the timezone is the same as mines (aka no 5am start times). So ideally I will have a final look at ownership right before lock. Most items are not expected to change drastically but yet sometimes them pivots re

Last week the data seemed to align well but due to time restrictions I didnt get to truly build lineups the way I would normally. Still min cashed with 2 missed cuts in the lineup because the core plays landed well. Hoping for a better week than that! Odds vs Situations First peek at everything has Min Woo Lee looking like Scottie Scheffler in this field, well above the next closest play in odds of success. He only had 1 historical visit here and won (last year). Doesnt mean

Been so busy I didnt get to post anything last week so I wanted to get back on track at least this week, this morning while I can. We have a non Scheffler event which should make things more balanced from the start. Wind might be a factor into this week as well. I am looking at my charts for the first time as I write this post to share my thinking process from a data perspective. Hope it helps fill in the gaps to your lineup's win equity. Odds vs Situations Xander been playin

Last week, had a decent breakthrough with a handful of charts aligning well. Then got too cute and swapped 1 play out of my lineup at 2am, which cost me roughly a top 20 finish in the Sand trap when taking out Nico who won for Kevin Yu. That tells me that this data post has potential to land a big win without 150 max entries. Lets see what we have this week. Odds and Situations The field size is down to 72 this week and Scottie Scheffler is part of that field, which makes for

Every week is a new season in DFS, so I expect variance week to week in PGA. This week has the potential to be the most variant of them all so far. 3 of the top salaries dropped out of the tournament after salaries are set, and now we have Ryan Gerard atop of the list of odds, who has not done me much service all year despite having good odds for the price. We have some decisions to make! Odds vs Situations This is where I start every week (after pulling data from various sou

Last week turned out profitable across lineups thanks to landing on Min Woo at t2 plus some other hits. You can find some wrapup notes on the end of all of my X threads as I try and improve weekly where things work or don't work. Follow me there for the latest and greatest -> https://x.com/dfsedric Odds and Situations We start the week with the 4 tables plus scatterplot against my custom odds to find value and leverage next to the typical top plays. One item that is notable t

Not gonna lie, I just got back from Vegas, tired and possibly dehydrated but still gonna see if I can get some basic insights out from my normal charts and such. This appears to be a no cut event which puts some of the weaker golfers in play to make their ceilings. Lets see how things shake out! Odds vs Situations Another week where Scheffler dominates the top of the chart, which means proceed with caution. I will say that he showed up more optimal this week than the last wee

Been doing a whole lot of tinkering with my tools as the season begins so I can convert to autopilot later on. This week I have created new insights that I found to be a hole in my system in general so I will talk a bit about that as we get into these typical, yet upgraded views for tomorrow! Odds vs Situations This week, Scottie is clearly back in the field as he leaps over the next closest person in the chart. What makes this one interesting to me is that Xander just screwe

This is very last minute and its because I have been working on improving my sims all week and through the night. Some items have changed for the better and some things still require tweaking but this post is mostly for myself as I work out the details of things. I will start by showing the changes based on last week's dashboard / sim insights and how I used them. The same charts will be used in this week's tournament, although the logic may have changed behind the calculati

Its been a while since we looked into some PGA strategy for these tournaments so I figure I'd post up to show what things look like from my end, as I continue to build out my tools for the season. Use what you like and ignore what you dont. Either way PGA is fun and I suspect that we will get some good results this year. Odds vs Situations One thing about Scottie Scheffler being on the slate is that his price and odds of success put him so far out in a league of his own, that

I told myself I wasnt going to do this, but last minute, I got the urge and some free time to run things as is. The thing about playoffs is that most stats will stay stagnant for the next few weeks, as playoff stats start messing things up a bit from here out. Therefore this weekend is the best stat view of the post season for sure. As time permits I will add some showdown slate insights too, with focus on finding leverage, optimal plays, and underowned thoughts to fill in y

This is my 2nd least favorite week of the year for NFL because of the lack of predictability as players shuffle in. However for Saturday that is not the case where both teams are playing to win. I otherwise intend to focus on showdown mostly the rest of the way out. Lets see what edges stand out the most for Saturday but check back for other showdown opportunities! Workload vs Salary I underlined the top owned plays on the slate at each position and Bijan, while projecting to

This is an interesting week now that the NFL has made a second 3 game holiday slate out of it. 6 teams, with 3 having backups or worse in at QB. Some teams long eliminated from the playoffs with no real motivation, and then some clear favorites to win the game/potentially rest the 2nd half/4th quarter. No way to project some of that, but we can assume that good teams will play well today. We still need to find leverage points because theres no way that we all build the optima

This has been a crazy week with not one but two of my data sources crashing out on me. Nonetheless gonna make it work regardless. Lets get right in it. Indy vs SF Expectations vs Salary (last 5 games per player) This chart is becoming more and more handy each week as it pertains to showdown. Now that I pull the last 5 games per player, you will see some names show more or less workload, depending on the games they were on the field. Christian McCaffrey is the clear top usage

It is week 14 and while some would say that the season is almost over, I prefer to say that the time is now. Thursday night football is going to kick off with some uncertainty, and uncertainty brings opportunity to be different as everyone jumps on the same player or 2. From here on out, I am going to focus my attention on fading the top or top 2 ownership plays because that is the easiest way to begin the journey to a solo shipping lineup. Lets see how the showdown lines up

New England vs New York Expectations vs Salary Tonight, we get two QBs atop of the chart which makes things interesting. It almost forces us to favor WRs and TEs for the most part if we are to build around the top usage. Henderson is projected to have the top chalk at captain so that kinda works out. Then I also see Hyatt floating out there on the cheap end for no ownership. Love that although it can change based on inactives, etc. Vegas Totals The total I have is slightly ab

Real life has been slowing up my posting schedule a bit but as we hit the holidays, I am going to do my best to cover as much as possible. I think this is a great time of year to take advantage of these tournaments when others are traveling and distracted. Lets start with showdown and check back for main slate. SF vs CAR Insights added Monday 2:58pm CST MNF Expectations vs Salary Before ever touching the slate, its important to understand what your gut feeling is saying in or

This will be a growning post so check back here / and X as the week builds out. Since I'm short on time this is just a quick hitter of usual helpful charts that I believe will help shape the core leverage build for you. For Dallas Cowboys vs Vegas Raiders, use the X thread! https://x.com/dfsedric/status/1990566879161921892 Main slate - just dropping charts today since I am short of time! Ceiling Finder Chase and Brissett flying with the most expected fp on the slate. One is l

Opening thoughts: Many people will assume that 150 entries in a tournament means you are more likely to win. That is partially accurate. You can add 150 lineups into a pool and have 149 more chances than 1 entry.. but that doesn't mean you will win money. If 1 entry of 150 min cash, you actually lose 150 times more in the process. Do that a few times and you end up broke. No one should attempt to max enter a contest without establishing a solid core to your lineup. The size o