NFL Week 17 Odds, Analysis and Leverage for Draftkings GPPs 2025

This is an interesting week now that the NFL has made a second 3 game holiday slate out of it. 6 teams, with 3 having backups or worse in at QB. Some teams long eliminated from the playoffs with no real motivation, and then some clear favorites to win the game/potentially rest the 2nd half/4th quarter. No way to project some of that, but we can assume that good teams will play well today. We still need to find leverage points because theres no way that we all build the optimal lineup even if we know some players are going to rule their position.

Week 17 Usage Potential vs Salary

This slate is a bit more unique now that players get in position for playoffs. Some teams will get conservative, some more are eliminated, and then there are some players playing for next year's inevitable trade and contracts. Trevor Lawrence looks like his usage is above the field especially at his price. He is also looking popular for a QB. Chase looks like the chalk at 44% owned, or at least second highest, as Ashton Jenty is quite high tonight.

On the value side, I am going to watch for John Metchie, Goedert, and Warren as potential contenders at their price.

Vegas Expectations

Cincinatti vs Arizona has the highet expectations by far so I do assume the ownership to follow that game. Oddly also showing New England vs Jets as a high potential game next to Jacksonville vs Indianapolis who might be eliminated from playoffs by now.

Top Projections

Brissett and Burrow both appear atop of the projections which indicates a potential shootout if they both hit. However I do recommend starting with the WR to determine if you truly want that QB or not. Chase and McBride both project well which indicate that there is opportunity for one of their recieving options to make it - yet they are both too popular for me to land on at their price points. Leverage opportunity will appear closer to lock.

Also noting the Raiders and Giants both atop of the defense list this week. Both sloppy defenses so neither going to be high owned. I dont have Jeanty in my top 6 so I am not sure I like either too much.

WR vs Defense

Just laying out where the holes in the defense are here. I like to refer to it when it comes to finding top names and darts who could pan out.

Summary of Situations

Here are my key metrics that I tend to use to find these plays. Raiders do face the worst run defense on the slate, next to Philadelphia and Arizona.

Early Leverage look:

Not entirely sure how to approach the New England team yet but Henderson looks interesting from this list to me.

Optimal

Definitely not a fan of this one, but worth peeking at to see which chalk pieces landed here and which did not. Also not a fan of the Raiders without their star pass rusher. I'll likely keep 1-2 plays from this.

Top Ownership and Pivots

The only way to play these 3 guys is in a cash / double up style lineup as that is going to be tons of ownership. Who might be a pivot from here?

Ashton Jeanty: If pivoting off Jeanty, should we trust the passing game? Probably not. But Tre tucker is out there in the value space. Keneth Gainwell is similar usage as he is for a fraction of the ownership.

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GB vs BAL Workload vs Salary

Derrick Henry has had the most workload of any player shown in this slate but thats because we have 2 backup QBs starting tonight. Not sure if game script tilts his workload or not, but Flowers, Watson and Jacobs all in the neighborhood of point leaders. Then the yellow circled zones are where you need at least 2 plays from to differentiate your lineup.

Saturday Workload vs Salary

Today Justin Herbert leads the slate in usage followed by CJ Stroud at less ownership. I circled the lower owned groupings to help navigate where differentiators might come from on this two gamer. Nico appears to be the top owned and therefore, there is a case where fading the Houston pass game for the run game + Herbert or someone else makes sense.

Vegas Expectations

Jordan Love is out and we also have Tyler Huntly in the same game so nothing feels super great about game one, although it projects higher. Both teams project over the vegas total but that doesnt account for injuries.

Offensive line vs Defensive Line

Houston and Green Bay both appear to have the best pass protection available today, while GB and Baltimore have the best run blocking available.

Defense vs Receivers

The more trustworthy situations will come from quarterbacks who know how to read defenses but this pool is quite weak, so I'd trust CJ Stroud the most here to find his TE.

Projections

Top projections for the slate

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Christmas Slate Workload vs Salary

The upside on this slate is quite clear, where Dak, ASB/Gibbs, Bo Nix, Goff and Sutton/Lamb separate from the field in potential points. Therefore it is safe to assume that your lineup will need at least 2 of those names. Then on the value side, I see Hunt and Kelce stand out the most, while Flournoy and Zystra are somewhat on the cheapest end. 3 game slate may allow for deeper dive in value below the yellow line. Goff appears to be the lowest owned of the top plays and Gibbs may be the highest owned on the slate.

Vegas odds

Theres a clear favorite amongst vegas odds today and that is the Dallas/Washington game is expected to put up 50 points. Minnesota Washington would be the 2nd closest in expectations, and then KC /Denver at the lowest end by far, with a 3rd string QB starting. I anticipate that to be my prioritization order as well depending on the WRs selected.

Top Projections by Position

Not going to even list out the other backups in my projections. However Dak or Bo make the most sense. Similar ownership projections so not any leverage at QB imo unless jamming in WR1 from other teams in your lineup. All WR1 show up in the top projections today. Maybe theres some opportunity with value RBs like Harvey or Rodriquez. Also after watching the backup KC qb play a little bit last week, it will be tough to avoid Denver defense even at chalk. One piece of leverage might exist on Kelce though as a result.

WR vs DVOA

This is where the holes in the defense typically reside. I like Mims but not so sure they will take the deep shots that get him the points we want.

Summary of SItuations

Washington is the only piece of interest here - in that targetting the Dallas game would indicate that maybe washington pieces help differentiate today. Justin Jefferson also projecting well as usual, despite his QB troubles. I wouldnt mind getting to some Minnesota players if not trusting Washington.

Top Owned and Pivots

As of early Christmas day, the clear top owned play is Gibbs right now, followed by Javonte. The RB position is thin so it makes sense the top workloads will be here. If pivoting off Gibbs,

1. The passing game makes sense with Goff to ASB since Goff is lower owned.

2. The opposing RB (Aaron Jones) might be able to pivot for a discount in ownership, but that will be thin.

If pivoting Javonte,

1. Dak will be the highest owned QB so I wouldnt pair them together. Instead, maybe Jake Ferguson + one of the other WRs with him. Even Flournoy who caught a touchdown last week.

Optimal Projections

Honestly not terrible of a lineup, which fades the top chalk, and pivots around a bit. I would definitely make a few changes to it but as far as a core, it could be interesting due to natural pivots from top owned plays.