NFL Week 17 Odds, Analysis and Leverage for Draftkings GPPs 2025

This is an interesting week now that the NFL has made a second 3 game holiday slate out of it. 6 teams, with 3 having backups or worse in at QB. Some teams long eliminated from the playoffs with no real motivation, and then some clear favorites to win the game/potentially rest the 2nd half/4th quarter. No way to project some of that, but we can assume that good teams will play well today. We still need to find leverage points because theres no way that we all build the optimal lineup even if we know some players are going to rule their position.

Christmas Slate Workload vs Salary

The upside on this slate is quite clear, where Dak, ASB/Gibbs, Bo Nix, Goff and Sutton/Lamb separate from the field in potential points. Therefore it is safe to assume that your lineup will need at least 2 of those names. Then on the value side, I see Hunt and Kelce stand out the most, while Flournoy and Zystra are somewhat on the cheapest end. 3 game slate may allow for deeper dive in value below the yellow line. Goff appears to be the lowest owned of the top plays and Gibbs may be the highest owned on the slate.

Vegas odds

Theres a clear favorite amongst vegas odds today and that is the Dallas/Washington game is expected to put up 50 points. Minnesota Washington would be the 2nd closest in expectations, and then KC /Denver at the lowest end by far, with a 3rd string QB starting. I anticipate that to be my prioritization order as well depending on the WRs selected.

Top Projections by Position

Not going to even list out the other backups in my projections. However Dak or Bo make the most sense. Similar ownership projections so not any leverage at QB imo unless jamming in WR1 from other teams in your lineup. All WR1 show up in the top projections today. Maybe theres some opportunity with value RBs like Harvey or Rodriquez. Also after watching the backup KC qb play a little bit last week, it will be tough to avoid Denver defense even at chalk. One piece of leverage might exist on Kelce though as a result.

WR vs DVOA

This is where the holes in the defense typically reside. I like Mims but not so sure they will take the deep shots that get him the points we want.

Summary of SItuations

Washington is the only piece of interest here - in that targetting the Dallas game would indicate that maybe washington pieces help differentiate today. Justin Jefferson also projecting well as usual, despite his QB troubles. I wouldnt mind getting to some Minnesota players if not trusting Washington.

Top Owned and Pivots

As of early Christmas day, the clear top owned play is Gibbs right now, followed by Javonte. The RB position is thin so it makes sense the top workloads will be here. If pivoting off Gibbs,

1. The passing game makes sense with Goff to ASB since Goff is lower owned.

2. The opposing RB (Aaron Jones) might be able to pivot for a discount in ownership, but that will be thin.

If pivoting Javonte,

1. Dak will be the highest owned QB so I wouldnt pair them together. Instead, maybe Jake Ferguson + one of the other WRs with him. Even Flournoy who caught a touchdown last week.

Optimal Projections

Honestly not terrible of a lineup, which fades the top chalk, and pivots around a bit. I would definitely make a few changes to it but as far as a core, it could be interesting due to natural pivots from top owned plays.