NFL Odds, Leverage and Analysis for NFL Week 18 Jan 2026

This is my 2nd least favorite week of the year for NFL because of the lack of predictability as players shuffle in. However for Saturday that is not the case where both teams are playing to win. I otherwise intend to focus on showdown mostly the rest of the way out. Lets see what edges stand out the most for Saturday but check back for other showdown opportunities!

Workload vs Salary

I underlined the top owned plays on the slate at each position and Bijan, while projecting top ownership as the top workload, he at least isn't the top priced. 61% is significant so we may have to see why that is the case (as I'm not sure yet), but my initial gut is to find other RBs at that level of ownership. Trever Lawrence is also extremely highly owned for the 2nd highest upside. Beneath him as pivots will be both Bo Nix and Matt Stafford, who seemingly have more points potential than they have shown in the past few weeks. The yellow line is where I try and find value left to right, so maybe Knox or one of the several TEs in that space can provide value. Luther Burden, Jawhar Jordan and Stevenson are the only non TEs in that area so its worth checking their situations today as well.

Vegas Odds

This is my least favorite week of the NFL due to the randomness of players playing, not playing, trying to hit contract incentives and other coaching related variance. I am going to lean on the left side a bit more this week, where Chi Detroit projects as the top game of the week, next to the Giants game. The Rams / Arizona game is looking to be lopsided although i do see potential for the Rams to put up over 30 pts if they want to.

Top Projections Per Positions

This is just as tricky as the rest. AJ Brown isn't listed as out but Barkley and Hurts are so his numbers are not trustworthy as he may be out or playing limited snaps with a backup. Broncos vs Chargers is the top projected DST, but if not playing Broncos, a Harvey / Sutton style mini stack might exist with Nix being in position to put up more points. I believe Chargers are resting starters. Harvey projects well to pair with the defense. I also see Stafford and Nacua both in the top projections.

Optimal Projections

This is how the sims handled things. It did select Bijan and a Goff stack surprisingly, which is coming in low owned.

Sim Leverage

While these players simmed out for the top leverage today, that may change with the inactives.

WR vs Defense

Here are the situations that stood out the most. Of interest - Burden from Chicago, Parkinson possibly as leverage/stack piece, and Henderson or Stevenson depending on how you feel today.

Best WR Potential

I like to find plays here that might have low ownership but high target share for their QB.

Good luck if playing!

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Workload vs Salary (Saturday, last 5 games per player)

What we see here is that CMC is by far the top points potential on the slate, with Purdy right beneath. They both get a tough matchup with top ownership so there is no real edge in playing either. You either take them as core plays in a tough matchup, or get unique at one or both positions. JSN is the next closest ownership but seems to be under the value trend line, possibly due to not being needed in all his games. This would probably be something where you need to choose 2 v 2 (purdy + cmc at 112% ownership combined vs Darold + JSN at 103% owned combined, or a different stack altogether). Baker -> Egbuka is looking like 33% owned, and adding Evans or Godwin would still be lower than those two combined. The yellow indicates my value trend line which I drew at the 10% line. Tonges is going unowned vs Kittle at 51%, which could be interesting as long as hes out there. Charb and Dowdowl really not very highly owned but seemingly more work than Ivring lately.

Vegas Projections

I have this SF Seattle game so close I cant tell you which team is likely to win, but I do have that game going over its implied total, thus its popularity. I have Tampa as covering the spread vs Carolina.

WR vs Defense

From a passing perspective, Darold and then Carolin both have good looking situations for the QBs, although WR2 for Seattle (Kupp is ideal) and pivotable considering Purdy is higher owned than Darold. Bryce to Dowdle looks to be a potential underowned value stack hiding in the wings too. I really like Tonges for some dart plays now that we know that TE is in a good spot vs Seattle.

Redzone Recievers

This is my list of players who get the most opportunity in the redzone. Of this list, Legette and Bourne are the two lowest owned plays in the mix. I point them out because 2 game slates will likely require you to get 1 or 2 plays differently and thats an easy way to go about it. Aj Barner and Jauan Jennings appear to be the top scoring in my system based on last 5 weeks of work, with JSN getting the most overall opportunity when it comes to recieving.

Top Projections

The top projection on the slate is CMC with the ownership. While I normally fade the top owned, I dislike fading the top projected with the top opportunity. If pivoting off CMC, a Seattle player is likely your best leverage possible at the RB. Buccs defense is appearing to be the top option to me.

Optimal Lineup

This is how the optimal came out for me, and its not horrible. Some positive ROI behind it, with both the top owned players in the lineup. Darnold stacked with WR1 and TE naturally and then Chuba Hubbard pivot at RB... not sure about that but just a thought based on what happened here.

Good luck and Ill post showdown tonight if time permits.