DFS Nascar Draftkings Review for Echopark - March 27th, 2022

One of my favorite things to do is break down the actual results in comparison to the data we had to work with beforehand. Its the only way to improve my DFS process and my dashboard views. Here is a look at the top overall scoring lineup across DFS lineups (not mines btw). The goal for me is to see which plays I was on and if I were off any particular play, see if there is a way I could make sense of getting there.

Overall analysis here shows a couple things: 1. none of the selected drivers began in the top 10. This made sense due to the type of short road course we had. We wanted to target place differential and finishing position for our points. His plays did both well. 2. This lineup didnt go dumpster diving in the 5k range. I am not sure how often it works to go down to that level of driver but he sure didnt do so, although most people did.

In comparing what I had to the winner, it seems that we both started on Elliot and Truex. Then we both got to Erik Jones, likely because of his road course history and starting position. Then the other 3 plays we took different paths (Bowman, Keslowsky, Grala vs Chastain Dillian McDowell). The first set of plays produced 110 pts while the second group produced about 164 points, with the overall winner.

Since my plays were based on my own dashboard view below, I will search for his plays in my data to identify reasons one would go there. On the left (dashboard stuff) is the same data I posted beforehand. On the right side (excel stuff) is the results of the large $15 draftkings tournament (sorted by both ownership and points scored).

One thing clear from the start was that both Larson and Elliot were way above the cut in terms of success odds. That is evident in the scatter plot and the top left table where I add optimal and best bet %. Due to price points, it made sense to pick one or the other to begin our lineup. The tie break for me was just seeing the Ellliot play as the highest on the scatter plot, i.e. he had the best odds of win overall and ownership was close enough to go either way. He also calculated to have the most upside of the two.

Martin Truex actually had the most upside on the slate according to projections. I believe that is due to his skill vs starting position.

Erik Jones - is actually only listed in the scatter plot but he also has good road course history and he is sitting right on the value line for cheap. In his range, Austin Dillion from the winning lineup actually would have made for good leverage as well based on ownership in that range of plays.

Speaking of the scatter plot, Ross Chastain appears to be above the value trend line as well. He has finished well in recent races and therefore going back for the winning lineup did make sense.

The one play I cant account for is McDowell. He was cheap and started far enough back to warrant consideration I suppose. He was random enough to where many didnt follow him there. His practice run had a slightly higher finish than his starting position. I dunno - I guess I'd like to hear what valid reasons there really were to go there if building 1 or 2 lineups.

*Updated*

Thanks to a couple folks on twitter, there was a path to McDowell. I have updated my chart going forward to pull practice data differently

Skipping to the excel results, I want to point out some observations: 1. From the top 6 owned drivers, 3 of them ended up being horrible plays per their actual points. In other words, finding leverage would have been a great idea this week. On the flip side of that argument, 2 of the top 4 highest owned were also high scoring players. In other words, a blended approach is what you should be seeking - some leverage with some core.

Ross Chastain and Alex Bowman both finished well in practice rounds and could be accounted for, whether chalk or leverage.