DFS Nascar Odds and Leverage - Food City Dirt Race - Apr 9 2023

Back to Bristol, where theres dirt on the track and there is no practice to work from. What do we do today? Leverage!

Updated: 4:55pm CST

Odds and Situations

Updated: The picture is pretty clear that Larson is the best play up top. Taking on the ownership is likely going to be fine but you will want to leverage the other 5 drivers in some way, which means look at the greenest of dots in Briscoe/Logano/Bell/Reddick. I am not terribly interested in taking the highest owned of the crew here with Larson if I build with Larson. Instead, I sorta like he idea of Logano as a second driver to go with him. Hes about half the ownership of Bell and lower owned.

Previous:

Kyle Larson is the top odds, top salary and top owned driver today. That leaves a bit to be desired in my lineup, but yet he is the top guy for a reason. We expect him to dominate laps, which is something that is highly predictable today. Pretty much everyone else in the 10k range is going to be leverage for that reason. Larson does have that upside going for him so he is not someone you fade with confidence, as you pretty much have to assume early car trouble or wreck for him to fail, and those are not high probability events to project.

Leverage

Updated: Suarez is quite optimal along with Buescher and Keslowski, so there are some decisions here when playing Larson lineups. Brad has the field coming with him so I suspect that he is the first name I uncheck if playing Larson today.

Previous:

It seems that Tyler Reddick is good at these track types and is therefore going a little under owned. Bell, Logano or Briscoe make the greenest of dots right now.

Track

Place differential points are going to be there for guys in the back. Looking above, Keslowski and Suarez start to become more optimal as a result of that. It is more likely where you want to find leverage plays, so Buescher and maybe even Ty Dillion are now interesting to me for plays today.

Final thoughts:

In terms of leverage, I would suggest considering Josh Berry or Ricky Stenhouse Jr., who have lower ownership percentages and decent projections. They have the potential to outperform their ownership and provide leverage against the field.

Overall, my top six picks for GPPwould be Kyle Larson, Christopher Bell, Daniel Suarez, Josh Berry, Chase Briscoe, and Kevin Harvick, with a potential Logano pivot off Bell. These picks offer a balance of high projections, ceilings, and leverage against the field. Good luck!