DFS Nascar Odds and Leverage for Draftkings - Advent Health 400 at Kansas Speedway - May 7 2023

Welp its Sunday and Nascar is in my city. That means I gotta represent with this data and what better way than break this down UFC style. If you havent followed my twitter page, you may have missed out on our nascar results where I gave out my top plays and went 6 of 6 on my final update of the day. Can we do that again back to back? Lets find out. Follow me on twitter to see all of the DFS content being produced.

Odds and Situations

For those new to my charts, you may be saying WTH am I looking at? This screenshot has a bit going on, with 10 different situations, as noted in the data headers and titles. I'll break this down this week.

I like to first begin in the midle of this visual, the scatterplot. That is because I see 5 different things at once:

1. Who has the top odds to do well based on the guys at the top of the chart (aka Larson)

2. Who has the best value for their odds based on the drivers above the trend line (Larson, Elliot, Busch, Logano, Harvick)

3. Who has the most leverage based on the green spots (Ty Gibbs and Logano).

4. Driver starting position (next to the driver name)

5. Ownership projected for the driver (next to the starting position)

Without knowing anything about the track or anything else, I get a good idea of how I might build this week. Then we look at the tables that go around the graph to see some specific data points.

Top left, we can quickly see who has the most upside and thats William Byron.

Top middle, we can see which plays are going under owned for their odds (Larson and Byron, with a big dip to Larson)

On the right top, we can see which drivers have the most potential for getting place differential (PD) points (Chase) , as well as the ones who carry the most risk for place differential (Suarez)

On races like this where dominators may be important, I can see how Byron has the most potential, followed by Larson

The chart below that shows the practice results and which drivers improved on their starting position the most (Todd Gilliland)

I also get an idea of which drivers are priced below their skill level (Buescher and Aric)

FInal two tables are to get an idea of where the value (Ross) and upside again.

Leverage

The top chart compares driver ownership to their chances of becoming value. I'll be honest, I dont use that one very often. The bottom left table just echos data points, including my optimal percentages and success odds. The bottom right is a quick chart to show which drivers may go under owned. I always recommend coming back to look in the final hour before lock because projected ownership gets sharper as the contest lock approaches. Right now this list is too heavy for me to decide, but we need three things to win a gpp: raw points, value and leverage.

Track notes

I think place differential is going to be something to monitor today in addition to a dominator up front, maybe two.

Check back for updates as they come in!

Picks for core consideration (choose 2-4)

1. William Byron ($10,900) - Despite his high salary, Byron has a high ceiling and is projected to score well.

2. Christopher Bell ($10,200) - Bell has a solid projection and a decent value showing

3. Tyler Reddick ($10,400) - Reddick has a lower ownership than other top-salary drivers, but he has a high ceiling. Definitely intruiging for pivot purposes

4. Ross Chastain ($9,600) - With a low salary and a decent projection, Chastain has a great ceiling value and decent ownership percentage.

5. Ricky Stenhouse Jr. ($7,000) - Stenhouse Jr. has a ldecent chance at points today due to place differential.

6. Josh Berry ($7,700) - Berry has a low salary and a decent ownership percentage, but good projected value for the price.

Not seeing any updates to move the needle at this time otherwise.