DFS Nascar Odds and Leverage For Draftkings - Ally 400

Its time to see whats going on in these nascar streets. For those new to me, I like to look at DFS a little different than the rest, using Power BI and gaining insights immediately towards how to be different than most players, while also seeking the best odds for success. Simply put, you cant be the best unless you are prepared to beat the rest and take on some risk in the process, so I calculate the risk and wait for my turn to cash in. Follow me to the top with the different view points below, with a goal of finding 2-4 drivers to go along with your own core.

Odds and Situations

I'll be honest. I can't tell you the last time I looked at this scatterplot chart and saw Truex at the top of it. The significance is that he has the best chance of success across odds. Per the tables surrounding him, he appears on just about everything so therefore I have to say that is a decent starting point to a core play. At 35% ownership it is not enough.

I'm also peeking at Denny Hamlin who is one of the top guys (higher on chart = better success odds) with the least ownership, and simply put, thats one way to get leverage in itself.

Names above the line are considered value for their odds so I am looking at you, Bubba Wallace and hoping for the best there. In the cheap range, we have a cluster of names and this is where lineups are made and broken. Erik Jones is probably the best value in the range but also brings 20% of the field with him. Justin Haley and Burton are both slightly cheaper with half the ownership so those are pivots away from Jones in the 5K range. Jones did really well in practice (per the table on the right) so it may not be necessary to pivot at all.

Track Notes

There are points coming from 2 directions today: 1. Dominators. There are 300 laps and therefore points can rack up quick from leading laps. Scrolling back up to the top table, Truex is one of those guys I expect can lead laps. Hamlin and Larson both provide some leverage as dominators as well. Kyle Busch is the lowest owned of the dominator group, but not that great of a value, based on where he starts. 2nd is place differential. The good drivers appear to be up front and therefore all I see is bums in the back with the potential so I am prioritizing 2 dominators in my lineups.

Leverage

Ross Chastain is showing up optimal over 53% of the time for me and so that is intruiging. He will be popular as a result, but maybe still underowned. The issue with him is you never know if he is going to Chastain himself out of the race with someone else and starting in the front does leave a little floor there if that happens. If he stays up front and finishes in the top 6 to 8 spots, he becomes a must play if the laps led count is high enough. So that is a huge decision point on the slate.

Last Year's Optimal

It seems that a lot of the guys I like today did well last year here. Other insights; Hamlin started 1st and ended up in the optimal after leading 114 laps here. Truex, Busch and Chase were the next couple of drivers to lead significant laps. 2 drivers started in the top 5 spots while the others look to be place differential guys. We also need to play lineups that have a ceiling that can reach 300+ points again.

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Good luck!