DFS Nascar Odds and Leverage for Draftkings - Cook Out Southern 500 - Sep 2023

Is race day. To be honest this may be one of the last writeups I'll be able to do for nascar with NFL around the corner. However I hope yall have been able to benefit from the data or even a bit of my process. To the data points:

Odds and Situations

It seems that we have Larson with high odds and low ownership. WIthout knowing anything about the track, that is a situation I'll take blindly because its what my page is all about. Finding good leverage that others are leaving on the table. I see Bell and Cindric area also standouts, above the trend line as well. On the deep leverage side, theres a Carson Hocevar who looks mighty green. I dont know much about him but hes cheap so hopefully he doesnt stall out. I can tell by the upside and positioning that Hamlin is likely the favorite to win this so the Larson play will be interesting if we can get there.

Reddick, Keslowski and then longshot Harvick in the single digit projected ownership are all viable.

Leverage

A couple situations to peek into here, where we table the idea plays and then seek out any leverage based on starting positions. The top 10 appear to have several underowned. Expecting tires to blow out based on the track type.

Practice

Due to changes in the data provider, I dont have a way to import these results - but I did screenshot the results from the old site I used to see who had the best overall practice times.

Last Year's Optimal

I see some chalk panned out- in particular in the front of the pack, and that sounds like dominator points can be important, aka why Hamlin is popular. However 2 dominators and then 2 in the back and then 2 mid tier drivers made up this optimal. Goal is to get a lineup full of drivers who can get around 60 points this week.