DFS Nascar Odds and Leverage for Draftkings - Dover April 30 2023

Last week, ended up in 1st in a large field GPP after the race was over and that felt great. Then nascar did some review and flipped positions to their liking and dropped me down to 5th place about an hour later, which felt less than great, but still ok. Goal today is to try and replicate the 1st place side of things without the dip.

Last Updated: 8:43 am CST

Odds vs Situations

Update: Seems most leverage is pointing towards the top drivers now, which hapen to be the more expensive guys. This makes me like Larson less because of the price next to other drivers who may need to be squeezed into the lineup. Tyler Reddick also just entered the green zone as he is starting in the top 7.

So lets see what we have here. From an upside perspective, was surprised to see Bell's name up top, even higher than Larson's name who is more expensive and double the ownership. Keep note of that. Then Larson over 42% due to his starting position I assume, in addition to his ability to dominate laps if he gets up front. I am not entirely sure I want to do that just yet but not rulling it out without further info. Finally we get a weird green dot on Chase Briscoe. Shines bright and he starts 6th. I think the path to him working out is if he can get up front and lead laps over Larson.

There isnt any practice worth pulling this week due to the rain.

Track notes

Id imagine you will want a combination of 2 dominators. 400 laps is quite a bit. It would appear that coming from the back and finishing well has upside but that doesnt appear to be something that happens here. More detail coming when reviewing last years results.

Leverage

As fate would have it, Larson odds outweigh his ownership projected. Because he is the highest price (and after getting burned on one of the highest priced plays showing leverage in UFC last night), I am leaning towards a fade potentially for the next best driver.

Last year's optimal

I thought this was interesting when looking at last year's results. 1. 3 guys with single digit win odds are in the optimal. 2. The salary was used up well. 3. No one started beyond 17th and I think thats hinting at the difficulting of passing other cars. 4. Larson was chalk and high odds last year with a top 6 finish, but did not show up in the optimal. 5. The top 6 drivers barely moved up towards their finishing position, aside from Stenhouse and Bell.

Last Year's Place Differential

If curious who was able to move up at this race last year, this is what happened. It may help point to folks who know how to get around the field on this track.

Good luck!