DFS Nascar Odds and Leverage for Draftkings - Highpoint 400 @ Pocono

Welcome to my blog for data insights on most draftkings sports. Today we will take a look at this race and see what angles we might take to get to the top of the leaderboard. I encourage users to pick 1 or 2 casual chalk plays that make sense due to their high ceiling or point potential, and then look for up to 4 other drivers that make your lineup unique. What makes this post special is that we look for the guys with high probability of success + unique as opposed to going full retard to get contrarian.

Odds and Situations

To start the day, this post blasts quite a bit of information at you at once. First, I can see that Truex is our guy with the highest upside guy with leverage. He appears to also have the highest price so that will be difficult to lock in without locking in a cheap play that has a good chance of success.

Peeking below, I can quickly see that McDowell is not only cheap based on how far left he is on the salary scale, but also really high value in odds based on how high he is above the line. AND only projecting around 10%, so there could be two drivers to consider potentially. I see Hamlin actually has the highest odds of success at similar ownership expectations, and several guys in between. Joey Logano appears to be the greenest dot on the table for leverage, not to say that he is in a good or bad spot, as leverage will take you to the top or the bottom of a GPP. That is something you will want to decide for yourself on the green dots.

Note that I dont have the practice results showing on the right chart. My data source has changed some things and now I need to find a new place to pull that data going forward.

Leverage and Optimal Percentages

Who has the highest chance of being optimal? Its is Chase Elliot because of his starting position, which gives him high floor opportunities. If he somehow makes it to the front of the pack to finish, then its lights out for anyone not playing him. That comes with 50% potential ownership so then the question we have to ask is, what if he doesnt get there? At 9600, that could be quite the hit on a lineup if he fails to top 10, so we look at other options. Kyle Busch is also quite optimal , but seems that most lineups are going to start with Chase and Busch. I recommend one or the other if going there, as 87% combined ownership between two guys is quite a lot. I believe Truex is the direct pivot to Chase today for that reason. It would be dominator points vs place differential points at stake.

Last Year's Optimal

One thing I'm trying to figure out is how points were scored last year. 331.5 was the top lineup possible, which had leftover salary. Many of these guys started towards the front of the pack. Many had good win odds. Chase Elliot won the race and yet had 5 guys score more points than he did in the optimal. Erik Jones started in the back and made his way to the front The guys starting on the pole both busted, including Kyle Busch and Denny Hamlin. Busch led 63 laps but finished with 1 fantasy point. This is all very bizarre. All in all, it seems that the goal is to get 50 points out of your driver if you want to contend today.

Underowned and Optimal vs Highest Owned

This is something I'm trying today, where I look at the plays as far as who is highest owned (Elliot, Busch, Bowman) and then decide who the pivots are from there. I tried underlining in red but that was covered up by the boxes. The boxes indicate that they are more optimal than ownershp projects. The arrows are the price point pivots. Id say that Alex Bowman is my favorite FADE this week, as in wont have any. He is overowned, under value, and has pivot options. Busch is the one guy I dont see a comfortable pivot to, assuming the ownership projections are correct. Chase is caught in between the two so I will play him in a 3 max, but not all 3 entries. And when I do, I'm certainly pairing him with low owned and green dots in some capacity.

Good luck!