DFS PGA Odds and Leverage for Draftkings GPP - The Open - July 2023

Last week was an odd one. Many top guys stunk except the guy I continue to fade the most. Despite having more wins than expected, he pulled the W and so it was a bad week from a DFS perspective. Several plays panned out from the chart otherwise to make that happen. I was able to profit from Reignmakers PGA entries and move on to this week, which is the mindset I begin the week with -> Stay true to the process and eventually it will land up top.

Updated: 8:45 pm CST (proj/ownership updated)

Odds vs Situations

Updated

Maybe a little shifting in things. A Meronk is the cheapest name I can see here, who is cold for most of this year. The top names on this sheet happen to show signs of leverage. The greenest dots? Hideki, Fitz and Dechambeau... Also noting that Cantlay's ownership has increased, probably because of me touting him. I don't like a more popular Cantlay as much as the 11% version but he still fits well here.

Updated: I added a filter to get rid of the most popular names on this chart. I will circle back to identify leverage as time permits. Its nice to see Rory over 20% because its a no brain fade for me. Yes, he won last week but I dont expect him to keep that pace up.

If you are new to my page, here is a rundown of what you see here: I screenshot this dashboard based on current data points that will update through the week. The top scatter plot is how I begin every week, as it tells me pricing (right most is expensive), odds, higher up = best odds of success, value for the odds (above the trend line), and most importantly leverage = greener dots. I have lots of reason to go back to Cantlay after he burned me last week as of today so my first lineup will have him in it. On the cheaper side, I see Rob MacIntyre is down there but super high ownership (35% today). I cant get beyond anyone over 20% owned this week, as optimal percentages are really low this time, meaning its our time!

The bottom tables each contain a label in the column headers that tell you what is going on. Rahm appears to have the most upside this week, Stenson could be the highest value, TP is showing the most potential leverage, and Spieth has the most top 20s in the previous Open Championships. The visual will change up til lock so check back!

Core but Leveraged

Updated: Fleetwood looks a bit stronger of a play than I originally thought. Brandon Grace is intruiging as he has the same price as Macintyre but 1/4th the ownership.

Previous: Is this the week Finau gets it together? I will test the waters with him in one lineup.

Previous: Rob Macintyre ownership did drop. He was in the top 30 last year and thats why hes popular, at 6800. Still a bit too high for me.

I believe these guys all have something to offer this week. Some of them are higher owned than others but found as leverage due to the odds of success. My personal preference is to never play anyone over 30% owned in PGA. Ownership changes as the week goes so lets just see how that pans out.

Actual Wins vs Expected Wins

I've been low on Rory for weeks, maybe months now because of this chart, but I will stick with the chart before I stick with Rory on this. What I'm looking for is the golfers who have played well enough to win but havent won yet. Xander, Cantlay, and even Scottie are all 1 win short of expectations, which means they can win any time - and I'll stick with them just like I did many names on this list before they got their first win. Morikawa has quietly snuck up the list to basically expecting to win at any point now. This could be a good week for that. Spieth is also lurking down there, but hasnt played well in a while. That name is more concerning than most, but at under 5% I might be interested if I find he's healthy.

Course History

Because this is a major with moving history, I don't have the strokes gained data to lean on this week. However I do have the top 20s and who has gained the most strokes this year from the list. Scottie is up there. Morikawa and Finau are the lower priced big names, with Harman and Grillo and Day being cheaper names that tend to do well in this event.

Course fit (datagolf)

The key takeaway for golfers this week is that driving is important. Both accuracy and distance so total driving might be a key stat that I peek at. Who ranks well in this category? My favorite play. (PGA Tour)

Update:

I pulled Driving Accuracy and Distance individually for all players in this field and ranked them 1 through 121st. Now we can see who ranks both in these categories together

One surprising name here is Jordan Smith. Otherwise we do see a couple guys like Gooch that you wont otherwise see on the pgatour website, only here at DFSed!

Side note, I am having to rethink Collin Morikawa as he was not in my initial build, but being 4th in this category seems like he should be a bit better odds. If I can fit both Cantlay and Morikawa in a lineup, I will.

Recent form (last 5)

When course history is low, the next strongest thing to look into is how well these guys have done in their own tournaments. I have to say Rory has killed it lately, which has been detrimental to my fades. I will continue that dark path regardless. Scheffler is priced out of this world, but hes a lock for a top 5 finish every week and thats also out of this world. The key LIV players (Smith, Koepka, Dechambeau) have been doing well and also love showing up for majors so we have to consider them. And then there was Schenk, the only guy to burn me more than Rory at this point, also playing well lately. Surpringly only one Euro golfer made this chart - and that is Adrian Meronk. It may be filtering due to ownership or some other factor but he is the name I will look into playing if ownership is right.

Leverage

Kinda weird event where the top tier guys have top tier odds, creating leverage for them. Perhaps more folks are going balanced. Gonna build from my cheapest play to the top this week as I think the cheap guys are going to make and break most lineups.

Previous: I will use at least 3 names from the leverage finder on the left. Ideally Cantlay, Xander and one more name if it fits. The cheap guys are still where I think this week will get interesting.

Previous: If Hideki is healthy, either him or Sungjae could be intruiging for low owned pivots. Seems like 5% ownership range is possible with both and I do like that with high caliber plays. Also have to wonder if Byeong can help make my charts look good two weeks in a row?

Looking at where to go with some of these guys at this point in the week is ok but certainly not locked in. Lots of changes ahead for ownership and possibly odds as well to shift things. Check this chart on Wednesday night.

Last Year's Optimal

Last year's course could have played a bit different but here are some takeaways from the optimal:

1. It was salary efficient with only 100 leftover

2. Balanced build didnt have anyone over 10k

3. Total Ownership (not shown) was 53.5%

4. Cam Smith won the event, Cam Young took 2nd

5. Seems you needed around 10x value on your golfers to get to that score

If you made it this far, check back Wednesday night for the latest and greatest!

Also note - > lineups lock Wednesday night!!