DFS PGA Odds and Leverage for Draftkings -Traveler's Championship - June 2023

Last week, things went good bad and ugly for a few guys I went for and lots of chalk actually panned out. Needless to say, it wasnt my week to win the milli maker. But lets see what we get this week.

Updated: 7:45 pm CST

Odds and Situations

The updated ownership has changed a bit of the landscape of this week. Jon Rahm is now showing as the potential lowest owned of the top tier golfers. If I add in Finau it could be him, but hes priced in the 9k range. Cantlay ownership seems to be picking up while last year's winner is going a lil less owned. Beau is still the lowest owned that made the chart while Seamus Power is now the top leverage play in my tables. Its crunch time so gotta figure out who fits where.

Scottie has top odds and top ownership as usual, which he is also with the top price. How do we get away from that? Patrick Cantlay (again). He and Xander are expecting a win soon just like Scottie but with almost half the ownership expectations so we gotta keep at them til one of them get one. Tony Finau may have single digit ownership so I have to call that out as someone I wouldnt mind playing if I can.

On the cheap side, I see Beau, Rai and maybe a Conners play ahead. Then Gary Woodland, a bomber type is showing as a top leverage option right now.

Actual Wins vs Expected Wins

I must say that Rahm is creeping back up to a playable number, but hes still off my board until further notice. Scottie, Xander, and Cantlay are all back this week and therefore all live for a win soon. Wyndham is now off the board for me until further notice.

Performance this season

I don't typically drive on stats but it is worth noting the skill sets of individual golfers. It seems that Sung-Jae is actually quite strong vs this field in Around the Green play, which is something we will see as more important in this course than others. He has struggled lately so that is a concern even still.

Course Fits (datagolf)

This is a very short par 70, so the bombers don't have any advantage on this field. Instead Driving Accuracy is by far the most correlated skillset that I can see from the major stats. Therefore anyone can win here and that leads to some misfits coming alive here. With everything aside from driving accuracy being below average at TPC River Highlands, I took a closer look at what might be the most difficult thing they will do on the course to see if we can differentiate where golfers might gain or lose strokes here:

It turns out that TPC River Highlands is one of the top 5 most difficult courses to gain strokes Around the Green when the shots come from the fairway. So if looking at historical stats, I'd imagine those with a good short game, ball striking with accuracy and distance control, and hitting approach shots with accurately will help. If they get off course, then maybe your scrambling, sand saves and putting skills to avoid bogeys beyond that.

Course History - Last 5 Years

The two guys who have gained the most strokes against the field at this course in the last 5 years? Brian Harman and Patrick Cantlay. Revie, Streelamn and Day are right behind. I have said multiple times that Harman is dead to me but I didnt expect him to average a top 10 in this course over that time with 4 top 20s. Cantlay, Day, and Xander are the best directions to travel otherwise.

Recent Form

One thing good about this view is that I always see a name Ive never heard of in this section. Benjamin James, an amateur has played well lately and with this course fitting most golfers, he is worth a couple darts in deep stars and scrubs builds. Aside from Schefler is Fowler as the next hottest golfer. He is priced up with that though.

Core but Leveraged List

These names are all what I would suggest as having solid numbers and risk combined. Therefore I could see myself building a lineup with 1 or 2 of these guys in most cases.

Leverage

Updated: Scottie is now the top name and Rahm is now present in the view of possible plays as mentioned. This week, it may serve me well to figure out which 2 chalk plays I am ok with building from and then choosing the 4 leverage plays to surround them with. We will see soon.

No real surprises here. I think Xander is one of the strongest plays you can make again this week. I'd lock him in if it weren't for Cantlay in the field. Both being 10K plus make it difficult to play together without taking risks. This week might be one where risks pan out more often than not so I will try it once or twice but I dont think thats the optimal pathway entirely.

Darts

These are going to be low owned guys who have shown the right skill set to play this course well in the past. This is based on good short game and accuracy. Maybe worth sprinkling around in player pool entries this week in case one catches fire.

Last Years Optimal

This is quite funny as I went back to peek at what it looked like. Sure enough, its a Cantlay / Xander build :) BUT look at that risk. Three 6K guys and 4k left on the table. It shows how anyone can do well here so most of the article is validated into last year's optimal. Can it happen again?

I should be able to update this page again tonight so check back later if you find this helpful.