DFS PGA Odds and Leverage for Draftkings - Wells Fargo May 4 2023

I hope you all are finding your stride to picking winning lineup combinations. I am still looking for someone in the DFSed crew to get a takedown in PGA. I'll do my best to help see that come to fruition with my custom calculations on odds and leverage below.

Update! 8:30 pm CST

Odds and Situations

PM Update

Ok so Rory numbers damn near cut in half. If thats legit, then the Rory fade is off this week. I'll play him when hes the top odds with that low of ownership. Cantlay ownership is on the move and therefore I will play him but not nearly the lock I once had. I prefer to keep my golfers under 20% for the most part, 10% for the 10k and above is even better so Xander is going in a lineup despite being below my trend line as well.

Updated: Ownership numbers are updating and its getting interesting now that Rory has dropped slightly below Cantlay. Of the top tier in odds, I see Xander having the least ownership and hes sorta becoming more and more intruiging to me as someone I will put in my first lineup. Not sure you can fit him and Cantlay but that is a true decision point all of a sudden.

Previous:

Rory is by far the best in this field. Hate to see it as I've been fading him successfully for many weeks in a row now. This may be the week of my demise but YOLO for me, as I'm playing Cantlay til I cant. Theres no real leverage showing on this move on projections but I must stick to the plan. On the cheap side, you better believe I am going to geet to B An. Another make or break play for me it seems. Then finally, a decision between Adam Hadwin and Matt Kuchar is ahead for some form of leverage. We will see.

Last 5 - Course History

Rory is clearly the best at this course in the field. It is going to be one of the most difficult fades of my DFS career, but next chart will show why.

I believe that building winning lineups are not because of 1 player unless that one player exceeds his salary expectations or separates from the field. While he has historical separation from the field at this course, I am OK with losing in order to gain the chance of winning without him.

Last 5 - Form

A name I don't know necessarily well is Sam Stevens as far as someone who has played well lately on the PGA tour, at least in his last 5 finishes. 2 top 15s and averaging 3rd in those finishes. Xander also intruiging too with much more success to show.

Actual Wins vs Expected Wins

Just gonna say its Cantlay season until he wins. Rory... man I told myself I would fade him until further notice. I'm a man of my word and no matter how good this looks for Rory, I'm going to assume he will not win 1st and will not be optimal. If he is optimal, see yall next week where I try again. But 30% of the entries can fight for that real estate.

Side note: last week, I had to do the same thing with my boy Rahm and it did not feel great, but he was NOT in the winning lineup in the largest GPPs, and thats all the motivation I need to stay on course.

Course fits (datagolf)

What we know this week is that driving distance is important and around the green, not as much here as other courses. So drivers and putters ahead for me. That helps a guy like Cam Champ, although accuracy is also important here with driving.

Leverage

These are my 6 most intruiging plays this week. Not necessarily playing them all or half of them, but I will have 2 of these guys in any lineup I build. One of them is Cantlay so if he misses cut, it'll just be another reason I dont like him -> but will play him til he wins. All or nothing for me, but other names to choose from here.

I likely will update some numbers come tonight at some point so stay tuned!