DFS UFC Odds and Leverage for Draftkings- Adesanya vs Strickland PPV - Sept 2023

We are back! Thanks for all of you who have supported my work over the past year, as it PPV time and one of my favorites to watch is on the slate - Adesanya. Lets get right to it, as I also have some NFL to produce as well today.

Best Best and Fight Targets

This is an early peek at what ownership can do vs the odds of the fighter. Kape got some strong win odds today and ownership hasnt quite caught up to him. I see some decent ownership dips possibly around Radtke and Tafa as well. If this is anything like last week, all the top guys are worth looking into as ownership isnt quite showing us a ton to work with yet.

Speaking of Tafa, fight 4 looks to be one of violence, as it is the most likely to finish according to the odds produced. Justin Lane is also very low owned so that is the first fight I want to investigate. Fight 6 looks like it is 2nd best to finish and also has high pace so that Ulberg vs Jung fight is one I will also pay close attention to. Fights 7 and 8 are most likely to finish in a decision, and as we see every week, there are shady results when the judges decide -> and that leads to leverage on the underdogs most times. Makdessi and Mariscal are the ones to keep an eye on, as we peek at their upside later.

Leverage and Other Situations

In the scatterplot, I try to get an idea of where the odds of the fighter success and the price of the fighter meet. The most expensive fighter on the card is Adesanya. I was somewhat surprised to see that, because his upside isnt necessarily in alignment with that price. Infact, 6 other fighters have produced higher upside on this card, including Strickland. Upside is all based on the winner and method of victory though, so upside is a secondary metric. The 9K range is loaded with fighters, and maybe 3 will be feasible

Fighters above the line typically produce the most value, but we still need to find some form of leverage as well. Lane and Tai currently show the most leverage (greenest) on the chart. Selfishly hoping Tai comes in with the KO today because I won an elite reignmaker card for him. Its a longshot as both are underdogs, yet we do need to find a couple underdogs with win equity. More to come on those guys later.

Mismatchups

These fights have the most significant advantages in reach that I could see. Typically that means either a fighter is touching the other fighters face before they get close enough to do damage, or they are clumsey and going to lose to submission or ground and pound. Lets look at them one by one:

Adesanya: Excellent striker with a size advantage so that goes well for a win. The vegas odds also support this even though Strickland has good takedown accuracy. Thats his path to victory but odds just not saying this is a likely outcome so I am going to back Adesanya's advantage.

Volkov: 5 inch reach advantage is pretty significant. Tai isnt the type to go for takedowns, while Volkov also has strong takedown defense, so his only path to win is a lucky punch. Vegas odds seem to hint at that KO having a chance to get through though. I'll play more Volkov than Tai, but will get to some Tai just in case.

Lane: Here is our first underdog with an advantage - 6 inches in reach. This is why he shows as the top leverage play as his odds of a KO are decent for an underdog at 11% ownership. His projection sucks because last time he fought Tafa, he couldnt continue after 30 seconds into the fight. However this play is more intruiging with all things considered so I will take this chance today if ownership stays low.

Mullarkey: With the reach advantage, hes almost a lock to win per Vegas. The problem is that his odds of winning by decision arethe highest on the board. Even still he shows 100 point upside and so I will have some of this play.

Diamond: 4 inch reach advantage yet this guy is coming off 2 losses. I'm certainly struggling to trust him to get his first win, as I dont know much about his opponent. I'm likely to stay away but he has super low ownership so this could be a large field play if you need a reach at a guy with hardly no ownership.

Joussett: I am intruiged here as its the first fight of the night. There are no UFC stats to pull from this matchup on either side, but the KO odds are good for the guy with the reach advantage.

The projectables

Typically fighters with 100 point upside and 10x value are the key to wins. There are fighters here with no wins and very low projections, for that reason. It doesn't reflect what they might do if they win unfortunately. Kape and Tai seem to show the most upside to me. We will see how that plays out.

Live Dogs

These 4 fighters are all wild cards to me, Tai and Lane combo is intruiging though, since the projection and upside dont quite show a true reflection of what they can do with limited data.

Hopefully will get another update out before lock.