DFS UFC Odds and Leverage for Draftkings GPP - Poirier vs Gaethje - July 2023

Welcome back! Time to sneak up the leaderboards through the back roads again. Last week we nailed some leverage spots. I hope that you got a piece of it then and this week as well.

Updated: 2:42 pm CST

Odds vs Ownership vs Violence

We want to find the fighters that are likely to score the most points. Points come from violence so the more of it, the better, unless your guy is receiving violence. On the left, It would seem that Bonfim is projected to bring the most violence since hes at the top. Jake Matthews is slipping through the cracks first as a guy who might go underowned, thanks to the price and the double main events. On the right, we see some fights have have higher violence projections than others. I'm surprised the main event is the 7th fight in, as fights 7, 6, and 9 all have the most projected odds of a finish. The thing about the main event is that they have 2 extra rounds to score points than a normal fight, and that also allows for more point potential. However if its a draw then you have to get value out of it, which takes away the upside of Porier and puts the value on Gaethje.

On the right side, we have the fights most likely to end in a decision (fight 12 and fight 4). It doesnt mean we need to fade it. Infact one way to gain leverage is to target those fights if 1. the volume is high, 2. The price is low, 3 the underdog is naturally underowned. Some fighters win by decision and still score 100 points which is the goal. So Ferguson and Cachoeira are in play for those scenarios.

Salary Expectations and Leverage

On the top, we can plot out our odds and see where leverage (green dots) and value exists. Bonfim has the highest odds but not the highest price so thats interesting. I need an update to ownership before I truly latch on to where the leverage is, but there seems to be lots of traffic in the mid 8K range. Above the trend line is value. This may be the most empty 7k range I've seen in a while which tells me that we are going to have to require on some luck in that area. Derrick Lewis is showing up with a 6-pack at the weigh-ins and showing a green dot. If he wins, its by KO most likely which gives quite a bit of leverage against the field on current ownership.

Projections and Upside

We are 3 charts in and now you see me talk projections. Why? While I do believe they are important, I also believe that other things are more important when building lineups. In DFS, the only way your projection matters is if they win. A loss is so difficult to come back from unless you get screwed by the judges and outstrike your opponent with knockdowns. So what am I looking at here? Mostly 2 things, potential value and potential upside. 100 points and 10x value are ideal places to go, but these fighters have limited fight history to truly project. I also care about their recent records as fighters on a win streak do help.

One thing I am noticing early is that the submission odds around the underdogs on this card are all really low probability. There are a few underdogs with good odds to get a KO. Take a close look at these 4 underdogs and how they matchup against their opponent and what the field is saying about them:

Salvador could be intruiging because of his low projection/upside. That means he hasnt done much to date, but I look to find predictive measures like that. Hes going in a lineup for me blindy. We are playing poker here.

Mismatchups

Last time I was able to break these down, I was able to find the Molly McCann failures to come. Lets see how things look for some key matchups:

Holland has a significant reach advantage and facing a guy with average striking defense

However Chiesa goes for submissions and takedowns, which is exactly what he needs to do to win. Decent sub odds on him

Gonna side with Holland striking to get the KO here but its close.

The Lewis advantage may be pretty good. Both just about average striking defense. Lima is better at getting takedowns, if thats in his game plan today.

I can picture a Lewis upset panning out here, as both have over 30% chance as winning by KO, yet Lewis ownership is not keeping up with that.

Semelsberger has the advantage but 1. coming in on shorter notice to this opponent and 2. lacking in accuracy for striking is a problem for his reach advantage.

Semelsberger also absorbs more punches per minute than Medic who throws a lot of punches per minute.

I will be pushing Medic in my lineups at a higher rate than Semelsberger, as finding underdogs to target is a bit tough this week.

Cachoeira has a decent height advantage and she might need that as her defense sucks. I could see Maverick taking on less damage and providing more damage in this fight. Going to accept Maverick winning this one.

Pace vs Potential

Fight 7 with Lewis is definitely the highest chance of a KO on the card as these guys are looking to end the match early. Bonfim also a strong candidate to win with a finish against Giles with less overall fight ownership. Then we get to Jake Matthews vs Flowers on short notice. Not a ton of fight ownership, but thats likely because no one is on Flowers today (with good reason). The fight with the most upside on this card is either going to be Medic / Semelsberger or the main event, which actually is sliding low on this chart as well. Fight 2 seems to be going overlooked with better odds of a finish at stake, and decent upside.

Hoping for one more ownership update before the fights. Good luck!