DFS UFC Odds and Leverage for Draftkings - Holloway vs Allen - April 2023

To my surprise this card is taking place in Kansas City, possibly walking distance from where I live and yet I didn't even know til I started to set this page up. Hopefully theres a good turnout. I will be busy this afternoon quite a bit but wanted to show you what I am seeing regardless.

Updated: 1:58 pm CST

Odds vs Ownership

Update: Definitely looks like Gillian is going under owned for some reason. Fights 13, 10, 4, 8 , 3 and 2 are all in contention for finishes based on odds. I also think Billy's fight is overowned for a reason based on the pace, but I'm a contrarian player so no telling if I bite just yet.

I'm seeing the top odds land on Billy and then Gillian today, although the ownership is following Billy at the moment. Also seeing that the main event with Max/Allen is going to be a highly encouraged play, due to the pace and odds of a finish ahead.

Leverage

Updated: not a ton to change here. Max Holloway is pretty optimal in that main event. I may just eat that chalk. Brandon Royval is showing as a leverage underdog and therefore maybe he is the irst one in for me. Dustin Jacoby is another name I'm eyeing for a build due to his optimal percentage.

High chance I start my build with Gillian this week based on the odds and value. Shes right on the border of leverage so if you think ownership rises, be careful there. Royval looks interesting on the cheap side, but underdog territory is always dangerous. You will likely want 3 underdogs to make the lineup construction itself hit leverage.

Volume

Updated: Fight 13 is the most intruiging up top but it will require an early finish of some sort to make it work. Otherwise fight 10, Gillian I am already on, and then Boser is a decision point still.

I will have interest in fight 4 and maybe 3 as well due to the volume expectations today. Fight 13 is also potentially underowned with the potential for a finish, but I do not know either fighter. If you choose right maybe that helps you jump over some folks.

Projections

With the lineups possible I think that shooting for scores around 700 in UFC is wise, and 10x is the ideal per person target. Some fighters do not project well due to lack of history but we get the idea here.

Hopefully will get an ownership update to all 3 visuals today, but I will be in and out a lot so not 100% sure by lineup lock. Good luck!