Draftkings NFL Showdown - LA Rams vs Las Vegas Raiders - Dec 8 2022

I'm still hunting for a top finish myself but I give you the data i play from directly. I hope it brings us all good fortune, while no one knows we are here.

Odds vs Salary

Was waiting to pull this chart all day because it hints at a few things. 1. Adams has the top odds on the slate and may come in lesser owned than Jacobs. Then there is a steep fall off. Then there are dart names we can keep an eye on like Abdullah, Malcom and Keelan (much more popular).

More importantly, I see that the Rams players are just a hair cheaper in terms of value to their plays. That is expected but also a lil scary to go for, because even though the Raiders are higher owned, I see that they are lower owned in comparison to their odds than the Rams. I'm sadly going to favor a 4 stack Raiders stack tonight for that reason as I proceed.

Vegas Points vs My Vegas Projection

Now what do we do with this. Wilford is a backup QB facing a terrible defense. I have the rams covering the spread in part due to what Stafford and the other Rams have done to date. That is a bit scary to think of, but this does mean that we should still consider a potential Rams value stack, because if they cover, it could be where the cheap value comes to fruition (in the flex). I dont see any history of a Ram getting the usage that pushes me to think Captain, even if I play 4 of them.

Game Flow

Yea so the Rams are a known pass funnel surprisingly. Good pass rush and run defense but bad secondary. The raiders are a bad defense period. Thats why even the Rams can score on them tonight. Not sure on the Baker status but that also can change projections. If the rams can keep it close, the RB position would be intruiging to me, even though they suck and likely wont keep it close.

Defense vs Receivers

Tonight, we would be foolish to ignore Adams. Rams vs WR1 and WR2 are primary plays. I think WR2 could be Hollins, but sharp funnel away from WR3, which is equivalent to whoever lines up on the right side the most (must be the side that is covered by Ramsey). I dont believe he shadows this year but that is something to investigate as he would likely shadow Adams if he did. Who wins the matchup if he does though?

Projections and Leverage

This is draftkings based if I havent mentioned that. What we see here is more than meets the eye. The names sorted top to bottom are the way to approach here. The key is to focus on one team at a time though. If i'm looking at raiders, Jacobs/Adams/Carr make a ton of sense, but specifically with Carr in the Captain spot if so. That absorbs a ton of points and sets you up to leverage properly.

A Rams stack may begin with Wolford captain, 'maybe' Cam Akers in the flex or skip him (he sucks), a Van Jefferson play, Ben/Higbee. Essentially want to see how one side lines up vs the next in this, and lean 4 players to one team no matter what.

Hope this helps! I wont be here for kickoff so this may be my sole update today.