Draftkings UFC DFS - Oliveira vs Makachev PPV - Oct 22 2024

We have a nice payperview matchup today and you know I gotta pause NFL for this (article coming later today). The range of outcomes vs the prices is incredible so I feel like this will be good from a DFS perspective as well.

Vegas odds vs Ownership

Mokaev seems to have the highest odds around here. We have seen upsets come to the peeps in this spot before but right now he seems to be the top play.

Interestingly, the Belal / Brady fight is looking highly likely to end in a decision, to the point where i have negative odds showing for a finish (not quite sure why yet).

Odds and optimal percentages

Muhammed is definitely optimal, but not quite someone you get leverage with. You will want to look at a few other names today to pair with the best odds of wins.

Salary based Odds and Leverage Opportunity

I underlined the 3 guys who are expected to be the highest owned on the card. The one guy who stands out thanks to this chart is Sterling. He is below the value line for me. In the main event so i get it, but he seems like a fade candidate for solely being under first off. Secondly, Gamrot, Krylov and Brady odds of success are higher per their vegas odds so they are all worth a deeper look.

Significant strikes vs Ownership

I try to find the best intersection between the volume and KO potential with lower ownership. Fights 10 and 8 are appealing for that reason. That is, if the KO doesnt land, maybe they get to the points by volume.

Projections and Odds

Lots of upside fighters on this card. It seems around 767 is the score to target today.

Size advantages

Over 3 inches in height and reach is what typically leads to an advantage for me. Dobson for example should be able to stand back and punch without being touched if he has power and skill. Projection is low on him so I'm not sure he does. Anyways good luck!