Nascar DFS Draftkings - M&M's Fan Appreciation 400 at Pocono - July 24 2022

Gonna step up my game a lil bit with the free few minutes I have this morning to see what type of insight we gain from the track and type of race we can expect ahead.

First thing - not a whole lot of turns involved with this track. Long straightaways and therefore expecting less issues on the turn than usual.

Infact, 87% of drivers in this field have finished the race, leaving about a 13% estimation of someone not finishing at the end. That's pretty low in comparison to other tracks historically.

Each lap is 2.5 miles, so with 160 laps to work with, we have 112 total dominator points to work with total. Could be a good chunk if one person can stay in front long enough.

Now, without further ado - here is what we are working with today.

Updated: 1:19 pm CST

First look and thoughts: Kyle Busch and Martin Truex have the most upside for me with regards to projections. The difference when I see them in the scatter plot? One has odds above the line and one does not, so I am siding with Busch as a starting point. They are more likely to suck up the dominator points that are not being targetted this race -> along with Denny Hamlin and Kyle Larson who are showing up as potential leverage plays up top.

For place differential, Erik Jones is coming in as the one with the most upside here. He finished well in practice as well. He will be much more popular today than most as I have him as the most optimal play on the slate.

Leverage suggests having one or two of the top 4 drivers in your lineup. That is due to the odds of a win mixed with their starting position as well. One or two of these guys may actually eat up them dominator points and finish in the top 1 to 5 positions, while most of he crowd is paying for PD points.

Some chalk plays are going to be the right way to go and some will be the wrong way. The way I see it, if all the chalk is right, 1000 people will tie and take away your ROI on the tournament, even if you hit the small probability of the optimal lineup. Therefore you want to balance your lineup with contrarian plays like these above.

That is, if Ross and Erik Jones are the top two candidates to be in lineups, we must decide whether or not we play one, both and neither. However they are popular for a reason (place differential points + practice results).

As I look at my options above, I'm more likely to join chalk on Erik Jones than Chastain only because the leverage options simply do not feel good in Suarez and Bubba. Less talent and their starting position is horrible compared to who is in the top 4 spots. Jones is closer to the value line as well.

This article may update more closer to lock so check back soon!