Nascar DFS Odds and Leverage for Draftkings - Go Bowling Watkins Glen Aug 2023

It appears that we get another road course week. They are usually more predictable than the average race and therefore leverage is harder to come by. It doesn't mean we dont need an edge though so thanks for stopping by to get one. I'll review a few different angles towards this week's race that you might plug into your core.

Odds and Situations

First step is to understand who has the best odds and upside in the race - it will be Chase, due to him needing a win today to make it in the nascar playoffs. Starting 15th and attempting to move up, if hes remotely successful, will allow him to rack up points in the attempt. I think having the highest price also makes that interesting so will need to eye his ownership.

Corey Lajoe appears to be the best option for cheap in order to get value (as he is above the trend line). Then we have a cluster of green dots in the 9K range to evaluate for leverage potential. Unfortunately I do not have practice data and that is why the table is collapsed, but review the other tables for insights. I will say that with only 90 laps, place differential + finishing position is likely going to be important just like last week, so the top right chart shows who has the top PD potential plays.

Leverage

Here we can start seeing which plays might be under owned a bit clearly. Elliot, Busch, Dinger, and Gibbs are all top of the food chain with their ceilings. I will likely play 2-3 of those names in my primary lineup as a result. We will need some level of chalk as well but I leave that up to your core plays. Byron is likely the most popular of the bunch.

Last 5 Road Courses

Since road courses run a little different, I pulled the last 5 races for road courses to see who has had a top 10 finish or some form of life. These guys at the top seem to have have found success the most. When it comes to the core drivers, perhaps a couple of these guys and names may serve as tie breaks between two drivers in your selection.

Last year's optimal

There was lots of chalk last year where 4 guys who started in the back were able to reach the range of 50-60 points by moving up. I think this race plays the same way as we dive into the drivers we wish to target this week. I also notice lots of chalk hit last week and therefore I'm not sure how much risk to take on this week just yet. I'm diving into the pivots next.

Underowned Pivots

I went looking for a few things in this view. 1. Who are the top owned drivers today? I underlined them. 2. Who are the most optimal plays? They are in the table. Then 3, Which underlined plays can be used as a pivotpoint to a higher owned play? I circled and mapped them. It seems that Byron has the most pivot opportunity to other drivers and therefore I will likely fade away from him the most. Cindric and Suarez carry the most leverage from this angle, although not quite the value of some other drivers. I also note that Mcdowell has high success odds but low ownership, and low projection so hes not showing that optimal but maybe there is a path as he has done well in road courses. If not him, then Gibbs would be 2nd most intruiging from an upside perspective.

Good luck!