Nascar DFS Odds and Leverage for Draftkings GPP and Tournaments - Sonoma Toyota / Savemart July 2025

My charts are not fully up to date for Nascar due to changes in data availability but we still gotta do what we gotta do. Find the right drivers at the right place that might produce some leverage towards our goals here.

2024 Sonoma Optimal

Lets start with the goal in mind. This is the optimal lineup from last year's road course race. In races, the top scoring lineups built were 324.10 pts as winners in gpp but this one outscored it without using all the salary. The dynamic is once again, single dominator, 1 guy in the 10-20 range that can move up, and then 4 PD plays from the back. This likely works for many road courses. I'm projecting that our goal is to get about 52 pts per driver if we can on average for a winning gpp score of 315.12. Last week we were off by 0.3 pts so hopefully this guideline will help us in driver targets.

Driver Targets by Upside

Sorted by projectable upside, there is a bit of nuance here because none of the drivers starting in the 30th or worse positions this week really project well for that range aside from maybe Bubba Wallace Jr. The question then is, what do those guys really need to do to get to 45-50 points from the 30th positions? They are all cheap but seeing more opportunity in the 20s will make for tough decisions.

Drivers with Potential to Move up on Road Courses

This list looks at the finish position compared to where they are starting in this race. Top to bottom these guys seem to be in good position to move up from where they began so I will likely target Custer, Buescher, and Gilliland more than usual.

Drivers with the most Variance

This is the measurement of boom or bust in scoring, and looking at the list, the biggest favorite of this bunch is Kyle Larson, which means I may choose him as a fade candidate today. Infact despite having 2 road course wins in the past few road course results, his average finish position is kinda low, possibly due to crashes and such. I dont mind the fade at 11th if he is potentially popular.

Potential building blocks

AJ appears to be the most optimal driver coming into this race while Shane is the odds favorite by a good margin to win it. I think you may have to choose between paying up for 1 Shane or paying down for AJ + Chase or some combination of guys. It is unclear how the field will really choose there, since the pole is controlled by Shane and AJ is in 5th starting position, but seeing Shane as half as optimal as AJ leads me to just taking the AJ path. He was faster than Shane in his fastest lap as well so theres that.

Good luck!