Nascar DFS Odds and Leverage for Draftkings GPP - FireKeepers Casino 400 - Aug 2023

Nascar time! We have a couple hours to build the perfect winning lineup. Lets begin.

Updated Visuals: 12:30pm

Odds vs Situations

If you want to know what odds vs the salary look like for drivers, check this scatter plot. Odds are vertical, meaning the higher odds like Chris Bell to succeed, the better. The salary is horizontal meaning the farther right, the more it costs. Therefore I'm seeing the value as those above the line such as Bell, who comes in around 32% projected ownership today as our starting point. Its a bit crowded in that salary range so we will have to make a choice. Then the mid salary range has a few options, including a green dot around Logano. The green indicates leverage, meaning he may be lower owned than he should be.

The cheapest range has options like Haley, Cindric, and Lajoe if our build requires us to get that low. The entire 6K range seems to be lacking value for their odds.

A side note: The website pulls in the practice results in a funky way that I am having trouble parsing in google sheets. I dont know when I'll have time to fix that, but if you know a way to import that data cleanly, let me know.

Scoring

The points seem to favor 1-2 dominators with 200 laps. Someone coming in from the rear could end up with a similar score if they finish well, so we need to keep an eye on those guys as well. Josh Berry is the best candidate to flash that potential that I can see. If I were to estimate, it'd be about 3 drivers that wont finish this race today.

Leverage

It seems like a no brainer to begin with Bell on the pole. However if he wrecks or falls to the back at finish, it can destroy a lineup. He has the top ceiling, so its just a matter of hoping he doesnt wreck or stall out. I'll have him in 2 of my 3 lineups if there is a viable pivot to him in the next update.

Last Years Optimal

Heres what we know about last year's race.

1. Bubba started on the pole and ended up in the optimal

2. Not all the salary was used in building this lineup

3. There was an extreme longshot in the lineup at 1000-1 odds

4. You want roughly 7x value out of any driver you select on draftkings

5. Very chalky drivers did well here. Only 1 guy in the optimal is under 10% owned, so leverage may be tougher than usual.

My Starting Pool

Its about 3 hours before race time but I am likely to draw from this subset of drivers as my favorites. Anyone else is going to just be speculation based on floor and ceiling in points.

Underowned Pivot Plays

Here's the outlook for who I think the most underowned drivers are after the update. The table shows the underowned plays and then when I pair it to the chart, I see that the top 3 guys all have 2 potential pivot plays a piece. It seems that Logano and Harvick are the two top contenders for pivoting today. The risk is that they are not showing as the same odds value as Bell and Byron.