Nascar DFS- Ruoff Mortgage 500k - March 13th 2022

Its time to look at some Nascar data points. Full disclosure, this is not my primary sport. However there's one thing that all DFS sports have in common; you need leverage against the field to climb the leaderboards. This is a track that requires dominator points and therefore some chalky guys may end up being good plays. But you still need to find your edge.

In the top left corner and middle, we are looking specifically for the top leverage plays. As of this writing, Kyle Larson is starting in the rear and is priced like hes going to win. Vegas odds suggest he could win it. If he goes underowned he shows up here. Kyle Busch and Joey Logano have potential to go overlooked as well.

The two tables on the top right focus on starting position vs average finish position. Typically the guys starting in the front are bad for place differential. This race seems different because dominator points can outweigh the points acquired from where you finish, so I recommend little weight on that table this week.

One thing I like to look at is the skill of the driver vs the price. It seems Chase Briscoe is interesting for that reason. He is starting in 6th, close enough to get to the front, but will have some big names to get ahead of. However with leverage, you have to consider that if he does, you can pull ahead of the field and therefore hes strongly in play.

The final two tables look at my projected value and upside for the drivers. We see Truex and Larson's name again in this space.

The big scatterplot is also a useful tool for finding value. Normally anyone above the line is considered cheaper than they could be. Truex, Logano both stand out again. Maybe Briscoe and Austin Dillion as well on the lower end.

Good luck and check back at my twitter @DFSedric up until the race for updates to this chart!