Nascar - Food City Dirt Race at Bristol April 17th 2022

As you know, things change leading up to the race so check back often! This is enough to get started though as we look for leverage points against the field.

Last updated (2:40 PM CST)

Note Larson showing 100% odds but clearly not the case. He is significantly higher vegas odds than the field though and thats the takeaway from his number. He is starting closer to the front so hes likely going to lead some laps and possibly win. I will have a Larson build for sure but he's not a lock for optimal lineup build.

Chase Briscoe seems to be the top leverage as of this moment. Could get leverage on Larson with the top win odds as well. Another dart looks to be Michael McDowell at 1% ownership (prolly goes up to 3% by lock). High risk leverage but hes there.

Some practice times to consider. Hamlin moved up quite a bit in terms of that practice and Logano/Keslowski is intruiging as well but tough starting position with who is in front of him.

Optimal percentages to consider

(based on projections)

Another look based on upside

Let me know what direction you fall today. Heres where I'm going

Ty Dillion is floating out there by himself but that starting position is super risky.

Also could interchange Kurt vs Aric it seems as he is leverage on Aric.