Navigating NFL Odds and DraftKings Leverage: Insights for the Chicago vs Carolina Showdown
- dfsedric
- Nov 9, 2023
- 3 min read
That title was AI generated - thanks Wix. Anyways we are back with another Thursday night showdown. We are at the halfway point, which is great for data but not the place you want to finish in a tournament. I will help put you on another level with the leverage and insights below.
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Expectations vs Salary
I intentionally write this article as I view these charts for the very first time. It allows me to see from a data perspective and removes bias and previous knowledge from what I tell you today. This chart - based on draftkings data, tells several things from the start.
Thielen has the highest ceiling per his workload over the past 5 weeks. He is also the highest owned (percentage) and highest priced (based on how far right he is). That combination puts him in potential fade territory when trying to build something different. However if hes in a good spot, he is in play while we go different elsewhere.
DJ Moore has potential leverage despite being below the value / trend line. It likely requires you pivot off of Adam to get to him (if you wanna try that).
There are 3 candidates for cheap value: Scott, Evans and Mingo. That is based on getting opportunity over the past 5 weeks.
The Bears appear to be lesser owned than their odds indicate. Note that when I build, I try and stack 4 players from 1 team and 2 from the other. Underdogs make great stacks for that method, because favorites always price up and go overowned. It wont work out every week, but it is my habit every week in a single entry build.
The TEs are going underowned as of this writing.
Fanduel:
On FD, Bryce Young is a potential captain imo. Not the highest priced or higher owned. QBs score better on fanduel as well, so if hes the underdog, you get an ownership discount as well. Then just about everyone above the green line should make up 3 of your other plays on fanduel.
My Vegas Projection
When comparing the vegas line (-3) to my line, I see that Chicago is likely appropriately set to win this game. The one thing that is off to me is the overall total, as I have it potentially going up to 47 points, which is well over what Vegas projected. Teams will over/underperform by 7-10 points on average and that impacts whether or not they upset or go home upset. With this in mind, I am leaning towards Carolina over exceling, and hoping theres not weather or injury concerns. Essentially you have to take a stand in showdown and I'm just going with the data.
Game Script
Based on DVOA, the best bet for Chicago is to run the ball today, as Carolina is dead last in run defense. Carolina should be in a passing situation as Chicago has funneled to the pass game. This also can happen more often when playing from behind, and so we just need them to follow the script to see success in the over.
Defense vs Receivers
Both WRs have a path to beating the defense today. On the Carolina side, short passes to Chuba or his backup could be successful as well.
When Car has the ball:
If stacking 4 from Carolina, it is likely because you are hoping Bryce Young does something based on leverage, and so hes the standout captain. Otherwise the Kicker and Hayden Hurst are captain only plays when it comes to leverage. Theilahn looks to be better off played in flex, but his upside can make him captain viable if you think he goes off for some reason.
When Chi has the ball:
Darnell Mooney seems to have the most captain leverage on this side as of now. Santos could also serve as a kicker on this side if stacking 4 or 5 plays from Chicago. Ownership does update as time gets closer to lock and that changes the leverage meters for me.
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