NFL 2022 Recap and Insights from an Optimal Perspective

I decided to take a look at the optimals from each week (weeks 1 through 17 for now, as the 18th week is when backups are likely to be involved). Not just the most optimal plays but the top 100 from each week. Then rolled it up for the year to see what we can learn about what plays worked the most often and which teams for and against were good targets. This is based on the draftkings salaries each week and so that impacts optimal percentage. As we dive into this season, we may learn a thing or two about the optimal price. I'm reviewing this live for the first time with you.

Updated: 8/29, Added even more stack data,

Added some stack combos that were optimal, Adding team specific players who were most optimal, Added a visual for the first four weeks of 2022.

2022 Insights

I have a few different looks at this unique data set that you might find value in. Speaking of value - the left two columns focus on just that. When a player was optimal at a position, how much value did that position require? Both QB and DST returned around 5x value in the optimal lineups when they hit. RBs returned quite a bit less value, which hints at paying up for RB, which has the highest average salary by position beneath it. Workhorse backs are rare but they are out there. Jacobs, Pollard, Sanders, Ekeler and Mckinnon were the top 5 in that order at the position, as the most optimal RBs, with Ekeler being the most expensive and the others likely having more variance in their performances.

Most Optimal RBs

Most Optimal QBs

Interestingly enough, Mahomes was not one of the top optimal QBs last year, as his price remained elite. Guys like Fields and Burrow had a much lower average price, allowing for better players to reach a lineup with them more often. Not to mention most of these teams had WR weapons to throw to (aside from Fields and Lamar who just ran for a 1000 yards).

Most Optimal WRs

Garrett Wilson and Zay Jones appear to be two cheap options that ended up optimal quite often. Otherwise the elite Jefferson has been killing this field in optimal percentage, in part due to playing with Cousins.

Most Optimal TEs

TJ happened to play on different teams and hit high notes so he should be higher on this list. Kelce killed it the most obviously, even at the highest salary in the position. So its either pay up or pay way down at TE.

Most Optimal DSTs

The average price didnt go higher than 3300 on average for optimal salaried defenses, and just about 20 pts for the ceilings there. I'm sure we can break that position down further and learn a bit more about those defenses in the optimal.

Team level Optimal Plays

If you were facing Detroit or Minnesota, there was a much higher success rate of being in the optimal it seems. Jacksonville led the league in optimal plays from their own team and gave up quite a few as well. It seems most of their optimal plays were from the RB position. Minn and Detroit games appear to provide the most value in 2022 otherwise. Did they improve their defenses?

Avg Points scored

Aside from QB and DST, the other positions in the optimal are shared positions. However we can say that we want to get 27 points out of our WRs if possible if we want an optimal lineup.

For QBs, I will only target QBs with 30 point upside in my GPPs this year. Sometimes it is difficult to see the upside, but thats where volume matters and all year long, I'll be focusing on volume to find the best plays.

First Four Weeks of 2022

Some teams start off much hotter than others and since we are going to be playing week 1 - I figure why not see who started hot in scoring and ended hot.. Detroit certainly had lots of optimal plays - the most over the first 4 weeks of the year. They also surrendered the 3rd most, indicating shootouts. The Eagles also started off hot offensively for their price points. I think an interesting activity will be to review the average salary of the top 4 players in each team to see which is underpriced per their ability to put up a big score. Bonus points if that team is going against a pricey defense, as those tend to be popular.

Most Optimal Offensive players from top teams

Jacksonville - had the most optimal players over the course of the year. Zay Jones is actually the most optimal from the group, even though he wasnt the WR1. This season the Jaguars get Calvin Ridley so that will complicate how much volume he continues to see, yet it also keeps his price low. Otherwise this appears to be an offense that moves the ball in multiple ways.

Minnesota - They seem to be lucky in the sense that they face Detroit twice per year, who gives up optimal plays quite often. Kirk was able to reach an optimal score against 4 teams last year, including New England! It doesn't hurt to have Jefferson, who reached the optimal 8 times last year, so perhaps this is a stackable situation that doesnt happen enough. Two different weeks, KJ Osborn joined in (Indianapolis and Arizona) - although only vs Indianapolis did they both hit the optimal mark together (along with Dalvin Cook). Of course that was an NFL setting record comeback effort where tons of points were scored that game.

Detroit - Jared Goff is probably coming in underestimated once again despite hitting the optimal 5 times last year. Opening week is vs the Chiefs and so we all know that this game likely puts up points. He has St. Brown to throw to still, but has lost a few offensive pieces (Swift, Hockenson, Williams, Chark) so it will be interesting if the new players can plug in and work out for Goff. The RBs get used often in this offense, and were optimal alone in two separate weeks (Chicago, Philly). St Brown blew up against Jacksonville and Washington.

In Seattle -where no one ever writes to Geno apparently, we see the 4th most optimal team broken down. In fantasy drafts and lineups, metcalf was likely the most owned play of the year. However, the most optimal WR/player in Seattle was Tyler Lockett, with a close second in Kenneth Walker. They do get to face AZ twice who I assume is the worst team in the league. Focusing in on Geno first -> I can see he was optimal against Detroit, Rams, Vegas and the Giants this season. This team had a shared backfield so two RBs were both a bit more optimally important than he was, in terms of their points scored in their specific games where they were optimal. I think that says a bit more about the importance of points from the position than anything else, as Geno has shown the highest ceiling in Seattle otherwise. Metcalf was optimal against Detroit and the Rams. Lockett was optimal against Arizona, Rams and New Orleans last year. They get the Rams twice a year. Side note; Week 18 both Lockett and Metcalf had over 100 yards and a td against the Rams but that week is not included in this dataset.

I may not post every team's breakdown here so add a comment on social media if you would like to see any specific offense on this list.

Stacks!

These stacks were found in optimal builds the most often. No one better than the Mahomes/Kelce combo, reaching optimal level scores on 4 different weeks last season. This does not include cases where another player paired with them, as this will bump the total up higher. There were a couple other combinations that did not include a QB in the stack, looking at SF specifically.

What worked?

QB+WR stacks are for sure the most popular and they work out the most often as is. The item that is missing from this view is ownership unfortunately, to show which of these stack types went underowned. Granted we can safely say a QB + WR1 is the most commonly used stack in the industry. It gets interesting when we start looking at these other stack types, in particular the ones with the RB involved. RB+DST has been one of my favorites in previous years but it requires turnovers that lead to rushing tds for the most part. Raise your hand if you've ever decided to stack WR+DST. All hands are likely to stay down. It is definitely one I have never considered targetting before, and yet it is the 4th most successful stack in 2022. I'm likely to see who that worked for. Maybe WR punt return runbacks?

Also noting that an intruiging but effective stack that worked out quitely a few times was Fields to Kmet. He had back to back games last season with over 20 pts and a 3rd game with 15+. Price wise it is likely the best value stack of last year, but it is likely to only work a handful of times this season.

Week 1 2022

Zooming in on week 1, I do want to know what stack types worked well previously because just maybe we can prototype that into 2023. Flair4DFS shared a post earlier regarding week 1 2022 ownership, so I decided to pull the top stacks specifically for week 1 to compare to his numbers. The key number to me is the QB RB and WR stack, which was the top stack for week 1 success, but 4th highest owned. Of course we have Indy and Denver involved, two of the worst teams of 2022. That means if stretching that far, it may need to be a cheap stack.

No one provides insights like this -> no one but DFSed. See yall in a few weeks!