NFL Afternoon Slate - Odds and Leverage Week 1 - Draftkings 2023

I ran out of time setting things up earlier but lets not let that prevent us from getting these games in.

Ceilings

I see Hurts as the top play on the slate, despite ownership going to other folks. Hes not the most expensive, and he faces a tough defense in New England, but if they struggle to stop this offensive line, its just going to favor rush yards for Hurts. Geno is my second favorite play at QB.

Vegas Lines

I'm looking for games where the total by vegas is lower than my own total, and Chicago/GB and New England/Philly and Seattle/Rams all have that potential to go over based on last year's stats. Injuries are not included in these calculations.

RBs

The intruiging play here is Swift. I believe that Penny was a healthy scratch today and so Swift and Gainwell should have most carries. Maybe Boston Scott. Either way, its an intruiging spot for Philly. Ekeler is the top and popular play.

WR

The WRs dont contain a ton of value to me. Gotta pay up for them or perhaps we pay down to Claypool? No one wants that play but Chicago is in the realm of upside.

TE

I'll likely pay up for Everett or Higbee here. TE is a spot I dislike chalk but none of these guys look like slate breakers. It will be the last position I fill on that note.

Summary

I wish the rushing situation in Denver was more clear as that would be my top rushing situation on this slate. However Williams is expecting a snap count. The Rams and GB are otherwise teams I may look at for rushers. Denver is also expected to have the best defense today as well.

Projections

Heres what it looks like projection wise on my end, by position and by site (FD is left side, DK on the right side). If I were to pick from 2 situations, itd be the Broncos, and then either Lockett or Metcalf. After that, good luck!

********************************NYG vs DAL Showdown************************************

Odds and Situations

A bit rushed but on the surface - the Giants are the play. Not sure Sterling's role but he seems like a cheap option along with Bellinger. Waller has the most leverage on the slate.

Defense vs Recievers:

Strong funnel for the NYG WR2 if you know who that is. Barkley in a good spot for receiving too. Then Dallas TE is in a smash spot, along with Ceedee.

Giants:

Either Hodgins or Daniel Jones captain will provide the most leverage. Dallas = middle of the field was a weak spot for them last year so Waller is interesting to me as well, but lacking leverage. Bellinger is more fun.

Cowboys:

Dak at captain makes sense. Giants are weak on the right and middle of the field. Id be comfortable with Ceedee, Pollard, or Cooks in flex.