NFL Christmas Day Slate - Draftkings and Fanduel Dec 25 2022

If you celebrate Christmas, Merry Christmas, if you celebrate something else, Happy Holidays, and if you dont celebrate, have a good day. I will not be here for some unknown part of the day so my posts will be limited, but helpful nonetheless.

Ceilings vs Salary

QB

I've been chasing a ceiling performance for a while from Tom Brady. Thought it was coming last week but then he threw like 4 picks and sucked. This week his matchup might not put enough enough points to warrant it but hes so far ahead of the curve in usage that I'll play him first. Infact if you look at the situation surrounding him, this could be his ceiling game:

They do face a bad run defense so run script helps them, but they also face a bad pass defense and he's the only QB I have who has usage at the threshold I like. None of the situations surrounding todays QBs are great so if a pivot arises, I may consider it.

RB

It seems Conner may have some value here today if his usage keeps up, which is probably based on how close the game is. Otherwise one or both of the Tampa RBs are going to be in play, as well as Latavius Murray.

This little chart here is one of the most valuable I have - looking at yesterday, it hinted at Carolina run game going off. it is less useful with only 3 games to work from but we do see Denver/Miami/AZ as teams who might be able to gain extra opportunity in the run game today. RB may be something to consider with the defense in these cases.

WR

WRs are not all that appealing today but some are showing as value and some are not. If they have higher ceiling than workload it doesnt matter where their value issuch as Hill. However 3 of Brady's WRs are above the value line in terms of their usage.

TE

The TE pool sucks so bad I'm not even going to talk about it. You can play Dulch or just punt it entirely - results prolly not going to change a whole lot aside from how much salary you have left as I dont see any of these guys scoring enough to break the slate. Some of them probably have 0 point potential even.

Vegas

The Miami game could have the most points scored today as vegas projects. That means ownership will follow. that also means not to run away from it but you may want to be a little creative in how you do it.

One way to do it is to get more pieces of the Tampa game involved, or lower owned pieces of the Miami/GB game. Its safe to assume that Tua to Hill is the highest owned Stack today based on how ProBowl voting went (smh). This can change over time but being that first game of the day is the big one, I think the lean for me will be with the late night hammer game, with only some pieces of the Miami/GB side in a single entry.

Defense vs Position

Denver has the most attractive passing situation minus the QB. Both of the primary WRs have a shot to make plays over this defense if Wilson doesnt fold to pressure. Otherwise it looks pretty choppy, where the TEs have the least path to resistance today. Double TE? I have always hated that, especially when the TEs are not even middle tier.

Summary

Connect the dots on this page to build a nice lineup with upside. I may edit this page to show how a Carolina stack actually made sense from it on the main slate yesterday. Will add to the bottom of this page if time permits.

Projections and Leverage

Mix and match! The names are based on depth chart and usage but you may find that flipping between WRs in the same spot help make this work. Check back for updates!