NFL DFS Odds and Leverage for Draftkings - Showdown Kansas City Chiefs vs Detroit Lions

It feels good to be back, yet I want to also heed a message of caution that it may not be for long. My data providers have flipped on me -> data I typically pay for to provide this stuff for free are now raising prices and threatening my existance seeing that I can not afford to offer up all of the sports I used to unless I double and triple my costs per month. I did get what I needed last night fortunately for this very special showdown (lifetime Chiefs fan here). Maybe it lasts a month, maybe longer -> the time is now when it comes to finding a big win so enjoy it while we are still here.

Updated: 6:13 pm CST

Odds and Situations

Update! Kelce is out. Odds and ownership has shifted. The big three owned are Pat/Goff and St Brown. Is it possible one fails? Of course. The most interesting thing about current ownership is that even without Kelce or Jones or a healthy Toney, the ownership is riding Chiefs. I dont blame them, but if you want to get different, pay close attention to Detroit plays in your lineup and be careful as to which WR you choose from KC as there is bust opportunity quite frankly everywhere with Reid calling plays. He will game plan out your favorite guy just like that. Definitely stacking 4 detroit players in my primary DK lineup.

If this is your first visit here -> this is how it works. The top scatter plot of names all gather around the trend line like a campfire. Using last years stats, I am estimating their workload and seeing who is getting the workload for their price, so higher the better. The Chiefs are clearly tricky due to the spread the ball mentality throughout the year and the RB carrousal as well. However we can see some potential value plays on the cheap side if these guys see the field (Raymond, James, Reynolds, CEH). Some guys like Skyy Moore and Toney may be seeing increased roles so their annual workload may not reflect their true value.

The bottom tables indicate how ownership vs the success odds align, and it would seem that Detroit has the edge without the ownership. That means I will stack 4 Detroit Lions vs 2 Chiefs, because I like to pivot in large field GPPs away from the ownership. Note: the lions do not have to win to make value in DFS, but if they do win - you have even higher chance of climbing too if the Chiefs are the higher owned team.

When KC has the Ball

Updated: There are currently 3 options at capt to me: MVS, Butker, or CEH off the top rope. I started the day with MVS. Hes cost me the most money over the years, why not - lets ride.

Showdown is a GPP game and we need leverage on the field that has a chance to score points. There are a few names that stand out over others. Obviously Mahomes usage in the offense is so high you should not fade him. I see more leverage playing him in the flex and so thats where I'll play him. We don't know what Kelce status is as of the writing of this blog post, but we do see about 6 viable options from the Chiefs, from MVPat down to Noah Gray. The darts here would be Richie James, Blake Bell and the Chiefs Kicker, especially if Kelce isnt

there for endzone targets.

Vegas Expectations

I do my own score projections on the game to figure out how I really want to approach things. I actually project the game to go under the total with or without Kelce if the line is at 54.5. I do find that a bit interesting, granted Mahomes has been lights out in week 1 of every season he has started. Nonetheless, under is the angle I will take.

Defense vs Receivers

We dont know which holes were successfully filled in week 1 of the season. However last year we do know that KC gave up points to WR1 and RB receivers. Detroit gave it up to just about everyone except the RB receivers. Therefore I can see why Kelce is important to this game, but without him, identifying the Chiefs WR2 is important. MVS? James? No one really knows as that makes them very tricky. This will come down to the inactives.

When DET has the Ball

Updated: There are 2 viable captains here in detroit. Goff or the kicker. I do think the game goes under so I wont hate on the kickers, but I do intend to build a Goff based captain lineup with maybe Raymond and Reynolds in it just to see what happens.

Things are a bit more consolidated with limited data. I only see 4 viable options, and as of now, Goff is a better Captain play than flex play, which is something you can build with 2 WRs potentially if he is the captain. However his usage isnt quite up to par for me to play him there. Id be much more inclined to play Brown, Gibbs, Montgomery and Raymond, with an outside shot of Josh Reynolds. The kicker is also still in play as well to some degree.

Ownership and odds change based on who is on the field. Time permitting I will update but this is who I am. I curate the data needed to build a silver bullet lineup in a large field GPP while still giving yourself a chance against 150 lineups. I hope to continue throughout the year, but only time will tell when I have to pull the plug. Good luck til then!