NFL Main Saturday Slate - Draftkings and Fanduel - Dec 24 2022

Last updated: 8:40am CST

Happy Holidays everyone. Ideally we can close out this year with a win. Yesterday was almost my day via the showdown article, but 1 move was not made that needed to be made, so I want to start this article by showing where I messed up, and why you should definitely check back to my articles before lock, as things change in the final hour/minutes that impact how you should enter contests.

Yesterdays TNF Showdown:

On the left, you can see what I entered (1 of only 2 entries). On the right, you can see 1 on of only 2 entries winning 300K each. The difference is one player + $299,950 in money for the 2 who got there using 20 and 25 entries each.

In the morning I was heavy Jets and certain plays. By 30 mins before lock, the leverage shifted to what you see me entering on the left. The mistake was not committing to the potential Jags onslaught lineup - and instead using double jets RB to get there vs a Kicker who was showing heavy leverage on my charts. I know this process is a good one. There may be a missing element such as associating the game script to the leverage or something else that is missing. Hopefully one of you put it together in todays article!

Ceiling Finder

Update: Just looking at the pivot potential, we see a lot of folks are going to play the top workhorse names in the industry today. I underlined them which tells me that most lineups are going to run out of salary getting to WRs. Maybe thats ok due to weather games, but then again, maybe thats a mistake if the weather isnt as bad as it seems. In th running back space, I circled a few names that are potential pivots from higher owned plays at similar ceilings. They may not al work out or be necessary but some are intruiging. For example, Dak is in a game with the Eagles and potentially in a partial dome situation but half the ownership of Kirk potentially. RB has the most pivots showing around the Dallas game and Montgomery.

Previous Update: Ok for Saturday, ideally we start by finding the plays with the highest potential ceiling first and look for pivots. On the surface, Josh Allen has potential to be the top play on the slate. I see Burrow and Chase are both up there as well for QB and WR at low ownership so that is a situation to watch. Brown is up there with Minshew but a little less ceiling and value as a result. These percentages change so again, check back on Saturday morning for the latest. Onto the positional!

QB

There are two pivot potential QBs that stand out to me actually. Geno and Dak. I think Geno has the more favorable position vs KC, but Dak has slightly higher usage than both. It may come down to the pass catchers that are worth pairing in this case, as i know Metcalf is one of them that I do like today. Daniel Jones is otherwise the top value so I am likely full fading Kirk today.

Last week, I realized that pulling up my summary page per position is helpful. Similarly here, Josh Allen usage is the highest and he is facing a bad pass defense, which means he will get a percentage of my lineups unless I find out he's playing in a frozen hurricane type situation. Burrow is a very close second or third in having another potential good day. These guys will go overlooked in that middle line, like Geno vs KC. It is freezing cold here today, but these are grown men and seeing Mahommes + Geno show as high usage QBs facing each other mean that this game may turn into an air show with a little less ownership than Jones vs Kirk. Definitely check back tomorrow on ownership shifts.

RB

What we see here is the chalk going right to the highest usage RBs on the slate. I see some pivot opportunity elsewhere as mentioned. One I didnt see until now is Swift as a potential pivot from Mckinnon. He has broken the slate twice in a row, but does that mean he will do so 3 times in a row? I do see reason for concern in choosing RBs this week and when there is concern, folks tend to pay up. Which teams have the ideal rushing situation?

I dont know if you saw last week's situations but they hit hard here. New England was one of the top teams with a rushing boost and they are back. Philly is also back. Sanders burned me in favor of Hurts rushing last week. Maybe he gets extra work now that he's WELL rested (smh). CMC is highly owned in a good situation. Make sure he doesnt have a backup though cause -> in KC Mckinnon showed us the value of a backup RB again, and they are back here as well. This week may be a little tricky as most teams getting the boost don't align with the poor rushing conditions. Baltimore, Buffalo and Carolina all face bad defenses with potential to run so maybe one of those teams are going to pair well with CMC lineups for value. In peeking at the oline vs dline blocking schemes, I suspect that rushing points will be slim this week so may wanna get the RBs right this week more than most.

WR

Two plays who immediately stand out to me are Chase and Metcalf as I already mentioned parts above that make them intruiging. Jefferson is going to be in the perceived top game of the week but not showing entirely as value. The Giants/Minnesota game has some value parts (Theilan / James/ Slayton) that come with ownership so may want to get creative there. I recommend playing WRs that align with QBs who make the most sense (listed above). Cooper has low ownership but it is likely a good reason with all the wind coming.

TE

Last week's huge letdown came from playing Schultz as Dak simply didnt target him when he could have for a TD and other opportunities. Hockenson usage is high and Andrews is looking like he is single digit ownership. What that means is I'm likely going to get to Andrews this week and Njoku because I am done playing chalk TEs unless their name has a Travis Kelce in it. Hes not showing as a value play but not to say i will care as TE sucks when you die with the chalk. So Chig/Njoku/Andrews/Kmet will get a fair share of space in my life. Maybe less Njoku with the game weather. Schultz is only going to be in play for me if I have a Dak lineup.

Fanduel Perspective

I grabbed the highest of each position here. The price of the players and scoring system is different, but I am looking at this from the usage perspective first. Ideally ownership will expose the pivots better come tomorrow.

Vegas vs My Projected Totals

This time of year, I side with Vegas lines more because of the weather. KC Seattle has the most potential for points but not the most ownership so theres something. The Giants game is actually down the list a bit, maybe because of the lack of weather, but I'm looking at the under there, which makes it something i actually will fade in my primary lineup.

To visualize how ownership looks going into the day, the first game looks severely overowned and I hope its just an overreaction to the weather but we will see. That makes me like this Cincinatti game a bit more for a single entry lineup. They got real weird out there last week in New England so maybe they do it twice and let Chase blow up.

Min/NYG is the only game with a dome involved, so i get the ownership. But if the total is overestimated, the ownership follows and they all get disappointed when the game is slowed down by the Giants rushing and defense. Dallas/Philly may have some form of dome too. Just food for thought so make your own conclusions with weather games. The Cleveland / Saints game may legit be bad so I may respect that game as a fade after all. Bills game is over that 20 mph threshold that I look at so maybe its not a Josh Allen day unless he runs a lot like Lawrence did. We will see!

Defense vs Receivers

Some situations to also consider here. Metcalf still shining so he likely gets a huge chunk of lineups. A tidbit here too: in the offseason, the Chiefs let Hill go. Seattle let Wilson go. Metcalf and Lockett were the two ideal replacements for Hill but for whatever reasons, they wanted to stay where they are, in particular Metcalf. Lockett is out so even more focus on Metcalf. I wonder how that narrative impacts the game? Anyways there are names here in situations that favor their position in the pecking order to choose from. Some shadier than others so yea choose with caution!

Summary

Full list of situations that are favorable. I see why the Giants and Minn game project lower for me now, as their oline vs dline protection may not exactly be favorable to stand up straight in the pocket, if the defenses do what they do normally. Philly and Houston may also cause some disruptions on defense.

Top Play Projections

FanDuel on the left, Draftkings on the right. Aside from injury news, most of this is set. Ownership and Leverage is what changes the most so check back soon and follow me!