NFL Main Slate -Draftkings and Fanduel- Dec 18 2022

The Saturday slate had some decent data insights surrounding it so lets keep the momentum going.

Update!

Showdown content below!

Salary Based Ceilings

Ekeler usage has been up on the last 5 weeks, above this field. We may dive into RBs more in the RB positional to see if its worth the payup. Otherwise I see Hurts as the top QB with Mahommes/Herbert/Lawrence all close by in usage. Adams and Hopkins also close for WR with Kelce out there for the top of the TEs. Onto the positional!

QB

There are a few value QBs who are on this slate at sub 7k ownership, even after I removed the junk (aka Zach Wilson). If their matchup is good, that could make things interesting because Hurts is the top option, while Mahommes is the chalk, yet below value in his usage lately. Colt Mcoy is the biggest usage value after 1 game but we have seen that 1 game isnt a large enough sample to rely on.

The QBs who seems to be in the best position to make noise: Hurts and Burrow. Mahommes can get there but is there a reason to ride the chalk into that situation? Not quite seeing it yet.

RB

Perine, Elliot and Jacobs all look to project well while showing value. Fournette may be the biggest value from a team that sucks offensively though. at 3% ownership it is worth a peek in large fields. With RBs specifically, I like to pair this data with items on my summary page:

What I see here is that Philly is a smash spot, with Miles Sanders and the platoon (possibly Hurts even) to run against Chicago. I may force a Philly RB in all my manual builds. KC also showing up here as someone in a good spot for rushing. This likely leads to Pachecho touches since McKinnon just went off last week. That'd be two cheaper than chalk RBs to consider.

WR

Per this view, it seems Keenan Allen is someone we must consider per his usage. Zay Jones is also floating highly. This is also a chart I like to pair with some matchup data where possible:

Chris Godwin for example, could be a good play. If he is WR2 right now, just maybe that pans out but no guarantee thats who he is with Mike Evans on vacation.

TE

Schultz could be the top play here as Kelce is priced out of this world.

Vegas vs My Vegas Totals

Chargers are interesting vs new england if someone wants to test that out.

Cincinatti vs Tampa is going a bit under owned as of this writing. The bucs have caused issues in recent weeks when I target them but maybe she found something.

Full summary:

I essentially referenced this chart throughout the article this week.

Projections

I think playing Hurts is the way I am leaning at this point if I can find a path to him rushing himself and/or getting Miles Sanders involved. It never feels good to play the Qb and the defense from the same team, as that would potentially give less opportunity to one of them.

******************************Sunday Night Showdown***********************************

Salary based Odds

It looks as though the ideal situation will include mostly Washington plays. Some value at all levels of the salary range. It also appears that NYG players may be overowned in some cases.

Vegas

I'm expecting Washington to win and cover the spread so this is extra confidence.

Defense

McClaurin and maybe a TE would look ideal for getting it done today for Washington.

Projections

If stacking WAS:

It is unclear what Curtis Samuel is- and so I assume Mclaurin is the guy but be prepared for some weird stuff like him getting that work.

If stacking NYG:

I may take Jones in the captain spot with 1 pass catcher or kicker. Ideally he rushes one in for a td.