NFL Main Slate Odds and Leverage for Draftkings - Week 4 - Oct 1 2023

Its game day, and I've prepared all the data angles I can think of to approach the main slate for a win. Lets dive in!

Updated: 10:25 am CST

Ceilings vs Salary

The highest ceilings on the slate have been measured and interestingly enough, Kirk to JJ is seemingly a stack that might go underowned with a high ceiling. AJ and Hockenson also standing out up there. I'm entertained. But lets look at what else we are doing today to get ahead of the field today before we lock in that double stack.

Per the top chart, the two QBs most likely to blow up are Jalen Hurts and Kirk Cousins based on their workload to points ratio.

Vegas Totals vs My Totals

Looks like there are several big total games to choose from. I like team totals over 26 points as you will see later, but also team totals over the vegas implied totals. Minnesota with the 27 points, Denver with 28 and a few others of interest here. Miami/Buffalo also had fireworks in game 1 last season, but I think Miami blew their load last week in an unsustainable scoring effort.

Comparing potential points to ownership, Minnesota stands out to me. They may be losing games, but they sure are putting up offensive work along the way. Now we go position by position.

Summary

I will reference this chart as I go position by position because it summarizes some key elements to look for when building your lineup. We talked about team totals over 26 points, but lets see who else stands out. At the bottom, it is worth keeping in mind the mismatches at the oline/dline. Philly over washington for example, could make for a good defense. Saints and Dallas both also seem to be able to get pressure today. Lets look position by position.

QBs

I am extremely interested in paying up for one of the top 2 qb expectations on the slate this week, Hurts and Cousins. Ensuring they both have WRs who project well is important too. Other Qbs of interest will show in the projections. Lamar Jackson is going underowned as well, granted his workload has been subpar lately. The top QB situations actually favor what i'd say are bad QBs and so I may be willing to go against the grain at QB today and get one of the 3 above over value.

RBs

When looking at 3 weeks of workload, Mattison has actually put himself in the best position for scoring points and blowing up eventually. He faces a run defense that is able to give up points today. The impact of Akers is unknown to me as far as how his workload looks going forward but it might be worth a look today at the price. Otherwise Arizona, Chicago, and Washington have the best situation for rushing today.

WRs

This week we do have some standouts at WR. Between JJ and AJ, we have that ceiling potential with their workloads, although fitting both may not be viable. Meyers and Puka are still exceeding expectations for points. This position is one I like to use projections for (down the page). Also reference the Defense vs Receivers section for random td potential.

TEs

TJ Hockenson is the top TE on the slate. If I play Kirk, I'll probably set a rule to play him. Otherwise Ertz and Ferguson may have potential for their price. Lets see which receivers stand out per the defense:

Defense vs Receivers

Looking for TEs first, Chicago, Tennessee, and Indianapolis all have the best chance of using their TE successfully. Looking for WRs, Denver makes the most sense to target, which may also mean that Wilson is more imporant to play than I thought. Cincinatti also has a nice pathway for Chase to take off today. The Rams WR situation could be good as well.

Looking at RBs, pass catching RBs dont necessarily look good today, so I will look for who may get the most volume in that space.

Projections

Now we put it all together with projections. I like to start with WRs and work backwards, and Adams was in a smash spot. However Jimmy G is out and we dont know how good or bad his backup is. At least I dont. My lean is actually going to remain with Cousins to JJ as my starting point, granted Wilson is the top projected play. I am not sure what I do with Keenan today if that game doesnt shoot out. Perhaps this is a game stack type week.

Should be an update to ownership later so check back before lock!