NFL Main Slate - Odds Projections and Leverage - Dec 31 2022

I must report that this will be my final post of the year. Thank you all for the support over the year. If nothing else, I hope you were able to see the field differently as my goal was to bring in a big winner, but that didnt happen. Onto 2023 with the main slate!

Updated: 11:40 am CST

Ceilings

If you have no clue what "power bi" is or why I use it, this is why and shown above. Most sites will give you projections and all sorts of "pick me" information as to how you build your lineup. What this power bi gives me is a bit different and way more data than the average spreadsheet. In this view above I see usage and expected points at a player and team level. I see ownership projections. I see salaries and the players who fall in given salary ranges. I also see projections, value and ceilings. But most importantly, I see leverage opportunities.

The guys at the top of this visual are the ones I want to pay close attention to. Jefferson, Ekeler, and yes, Brady. The amount of volume they have received in comparison to the rest of their peers. Of those three, the guy who Ive been expecting the most from for weeks, maybe months is Brady. He and his team have been throwing the ball with limited success. What we are waiting for is for them passes to convert to catches and touchdowns. When they do, he will be the top play on the slate at extreme value and low ownership. He only has maybe 2 games left to show the world why I built this thing. Don't let me down Tom Brady. I'm also circling all the guys who show some form of ceiling but yet single digit ownership expectations. I will play some guys like that regardless of their matchup but lets look take a deeper look.

Bonus

Something I cant ignore is that the Chargers have 3 players up here in the value zone of ceilings. Why isnt anyone talking about them?

Onto the positional!

QB

I am only pulling in Quarterbacks here to see how they compare to each other. The interesting thing to note is that while Brady's ceiling is the highest at low ownership, Mike White may actually be a better value play per his usage and price, while posing as the leverage play off Goff ownership for slightly cheaper. Brady and White are similar ownership and maybe I build a lineup that features one of each. Value is essentially anyone above the diagnonal trend line shown and the darker the dot, the more leverage that play holds (aka Russell Wilson smh). Most ownership is going towards Goff which means he must have a decent matchup. I'm not likely to go there with all the plays around him and above him.

Detroit is facing the worst pass defense out there so now we see why he is chalk. His opponent is Justin Fields, a top rusher going against the worst team against rushing QBS in the league:

Mahommes is facing a pretty tough defense although there are funnels to the passing game. Fields, Mahommes, Rodgers and Brady all have reasons to be played on the main slate.

RB

Ekeler has been top usage play for a while even though McCaffrey is the top success story (as he finds the endzone). That could be a decent pivot up top depending on their matchups (coming). Conner and Jacobs are tricky because of their QB situations, but just maybe the volume gets you there. Fornette seems to be floating as an interesting value too. I once again circled guys in intruiging positions who have low ownership. Keep in mind, you do not need to pivot all of your lineups with these views. However you may want 1 or 2 pivots in every lineup you ever build.

Combining with my RB finding chart, I have extra interest in Swift or Williams for two reasons: 1 it can be a great pivot from Goff lineups and 2. They appear to be the top rushing team on the slate according to all my RB algorithms, and this is assuming Goff isn't running today, its one or the other for me. I'm seeing single digit ownership here because of Goff and Jamal Williams causing problems. They can also be stacked based on what I see here. SF, Baltimore and Indy will be other situations I look at in the next 24 hours.

WR

We spoke about Mike White already and now I see the Jets WRs have some value here too to find. Wilson ownership is high but not crazy high to avoid. Keenan and Jefferson have had the most work of this bunch and also appear to be in good shape. We also need an update on Watson to ensure hes playing because that can change things for Green Bay WRs.

I am referencing my projection page for WRs and getting an idea of who ranks as a potential play from a team and player perspective. The name doesnt necessarily reflect who on that team will go off at times, but we do see GB, DET, DEN, MIA, TB and AZ all featuring a guy that goes off with an estimate as to who that might be. Mix and match WRs from these teams and you might just hit the nuts.

TE

What I find here is that you can play a top TE like Kelce, the top on the chart like Hockenson or the low owned guy like Njoku and hope for the best. Infact, Njoku is surfacing as the pivot to an up and coming Kmet. You can also try taking the DVOA situations that make the most sense and hoping for cheap TDs.

Kmet starts looking like an ok play this week this way along with others despite the pivot potential, based on the defense. Hockenson is not the highest owned TE but has seen the most expected points in the last 5 weeks. He also has a pretty sharp funnel his direction. I sorta like GB as a defense this week so thats the only reason I have not to play him as of now. Backup TEs can also play a role so watch out. I dislike TE chalk for this reason.

Vegas vs My Team Totals

You may have noticed above that Detroit and Kansas City are both the big total games that show up first. Philly is also up there too. I try to compare my totals here in order to see who has potential to go over the totals and thus become value. Philly is one of those teams. Carolina could also be one of those teams as I see a pathway to an upset here if Tampa fails to put up points. Green bay is again showing up here too.

When summarized in Power Bi, Minnesota vs GB has potential for points with less ownership than it should have. That Carolina game also stands out the most as one that is going underowned. The KC game is also intruiging and underowned.

Defense vs Receivers

Using DVOA we can find a few funnels and situations of interest. In column AA, you may want to ensure you agree with the ranking system as some names may not match the situation (MVS vs Toney for example). Then again, the filter to the deep pass could still favor MVS so some choices need to be made as to if its worth one or the other.

Summary

Summarizing what situations we talked about, you may be able to build a lineup from this page if you find the right stacks.

Projections and Leverage

Full listing of projections and leverage -> Fanduel is left side and right side is draftkings. Numbers and names may update come lineup lock so please follow me and revisit in the morning. Good luck!

Bonus:

I am going to post the optimal lineup that crunched for me this week and then use in a cash game to see if there are pivots for a gpp. If done successful then you can get the most bang for your buck on the pivots:

When I look for pivots, I am looking at the potential of Keenan Allen off of St Brown. Honestly I am shocked that Herbert is showing as a pivot too so maybe that is a stack on the late night hammer we all need to consider in the main slate.

Fade worthy? I will choose Evan Engram. Easy fade position and hes the highest owned guy in the spot. Im ok if he burns me but I think the Jags could do similar to what Tennessee did and rest their players for next week.

Good luck!