NFL MNF Odds and Leverage for Draftkings - LAR vs CIN Sept 2023

Going to start this article early which means that we get the shell of the slate, but variation in ownership and odds later. Ideally this will be close enough to plan though.

Updated: 6:01 pm CST

Odds and Situations

As always I start here to understand which players have the highest workloads that could lead to points. Pukais the clear top guy for that as he has played like Cooper Kupp in 2 weeks of work. Stafford right behind him and Kyren behind that as well. On the cheap side, we are looking at Ben Evans and Brycen potentially as dart plays if we need to jam em in. So it would seem that the rams are the side I am going to start my lean with. Mid tier Higbee hasnt had a lot of work to date for that price, but is seemingly low owned tonight so I may bite here.

Vegas Expectations

This works out perfectly because the Rams are road underdogs but I have them projected to win this game as well. That means we may get leverage just by stacking heavily on the Rams regardless. I also have this game going over the total, assuming no weather concerns.

Defense vs Receivers

It appears that this is a TE type game as both teams suck against them, as well as pass catching RBs.

When Cinci has the ball:

Update: I am struggling to see a bengal that makes sense with the narrative presented. Joe Mixon usage makes him the most viable captain to me for that reason. Theres just not enough juice for me here otherwise.

There are a few ways you could go with Cinci. They continue to struggle out of the gate and eventually will click and start scoring again. If they do, I am likely to do something like Mixon + Higgins in the flex based on leverage. I dont know if Drew Sample or Mitchell Wilcox will get that lucky TD catch but they are both 200 dollars as well.

When the Rams have the ball:

Interestingly Puka at captain makes sense and so I'm just going to take it blindly in my first lineup. In flex he may be over owned slightly so lets just see what happens there.

I see a path to playing the WRs in the flex spots here, granted the captain play is a bit tricky to spot from this side as of now. Ideally we would get more out of Stafford who has high usage in this offense but theres just no leverage showing in going there. That all changes closer to lock so check back later!