NFL Monday Night Football Odds and Leverage for Draftkings - Cowboys vs Chargers - Oct 2023

I feel like projections did well this last week and hoping that we continue the pattern for one more game in week 6 - tonights showdown. This one is a bit interesting because of the high usage plays to sift through mixed with the return from injury for Ekeler. That is going to come down to reports for me, but I can show you the data without that consideration below.

Expectations vs Situations

Of course, Ekeler shows as having the highest expected points of the two teams. This is based on workload from the past 5 weeks of the season. Keep an eye on reports from beat writers because I have no way of knowing how much work they will put in his hands on the first week back.

Next up is Herbert who is gonna let the ball fly often one way or another, and it is assumed that Keenan Allen will get most of those passes. It is very top heavy which puts some emphasis on going cheap to one of 7 potential contenders under 1K in this lineup. Based on last nights results, I may just take max leverage underneath, especially if we are not able to find leverage at captain in the winner.

Vegas Projections

Vegas says that Dallas wins by almost a TD. Thats a lot of points according to my projection where these teams are literally tied. 24-24. I also have it going under by 2 points. so maybe theres a path to another under performing game like last night. I also see some potential for the Chargers to get after Dak on defense for pressure. He is mobile so there is a chance for him to avoid it - infact his passing situation actually looks good so I'm thinking I may stack both sides to cover my bases tonight.

Defense vs Receivers

Both teams are below par against the primary WR, which should help passing. However the Chargers are bad against multiple pieces as opposed to Dallas who has been pretty sharp most weeks. There is a path to a WR/TE stack when playing the chargers side, and that makes a ton of sense really depending on how your captain play looks. So many high usage plays in this game it will be difficult imo.

When Dallas has the ball:

Update: Dallas players pretty much look better in flex than at capt aside from Dak. There is a non zero chance I just take Dak with Luke and hope Luke gets 2 catches for 2+ pts.

I'm a bit surprised that Lamb's usage is showing a bit lower than I normally see, while Pollards usage is up in the range of must play. He busted last showdown so there is no telling how he performs today. Vaughn, Tolbert and Schoonmaker are both high leverage.

When LAC has the ball:

As of now there isnt a strong read at what to do at captain for leverage and therefore my lean is Keenan from this side of the ball. Ekeler isnt a bad choice if he is getting his normal workload either.

It is too early to tell, but Herbert might end up as captain leverage. Keenan has the usage and situation to be a captain, despite showing flex leverage. Ekeler usage is showing high but leverage really low so not sure what to do with him just yet, but hes a potential fade unless ownership drops.

Check back later for updates to the leverage!