NFL NFC and AFC Championship GPP Odds and Leverage - Draftkings and Fanduel - Jan 2023

Outside of a superbowl showdown (which I will provide content for), this is the final slate of the season! Its been pretty fun doing breakdowns of my GPP process for the public this year, for the first time ever. Throughout the year, I will do similar for PGA, NBA, MMA, and Nascar as time permits. Maybe even Tennis. Keep me in your twitter lists (https://www.twitter.com/dfsedric) and check back for an even more interesting insights ahead for the 2023 season.

If you are new to Draftkings, sign up with my referral link and get a free $20 ticket! https://www.draftkings.com/r/sedric1

Last updated (main slate): 12:40 pm CST

Last updated (showdown at the bottom); 5:11 pm CST

Overview:

What you will see is a walkthrough of my thought process as I identify the best candidates to leverage large field tournaments this week. It is easy to do that when you see things differently than the other sites on the market. Most of my views will be based on very recent stats and performance based metrics. If you have questions or need clarifications due to how this data is presented, drop a line here or on twitter and I will respond.

Ceilings vs Salary

So here is the lay of the land. It is no surprise that Burrow has the highest ceiling on the slate. He has the most usage over the last few weeks and going against a Chiefs defense that typically gives up points. We can expect at least a third of all lineups to play him. Jamar Chase is also high in ceilings two, with double the lineups expected to get there. I'd suggest that the alternative to Burrow would be Purdy for less ownership, although there may not be enough reason to get there. Mahomes is actually showing as the 3rd highest ownership on the slate of 4 and that is interesting, although this will not necessarily save you money until you stack his WRs with him, which is something I want to consider. I circled the guys with the least ownership but highest expected points per their usage. Lets break down each position.

QB

Personally, I may just lock in Burrow. I dont see a reason to get unique despite the ownership at this position this week unless paying back down to Purdy gives you a big bump in lineup projection from the skill positions. Update: I did build a Purdy lineup that gives access to AJ Brown that I otherwise wasnt getting to in a runback.

In my sheet, I try and analyze the passing situations and to my surprise, none of the QBs are in ideal spots. However the remaining QBs in the slate all have high usage (minus Purdy), who faces off against the worst of the pass defenses on the 2 game slate. I think any of these guys can outplay the situation they are in this week. Theres just not enough reason at this time to get contrarian here.

RB

Looking at RBs, lineups are likely to have Mixon, CMC and McKinnon, some combination of the 3. Mixon has the most value of the 3 while I believe McKinnon to be overowned in projections. Eli Mitchell is unlikely to play which makes CMC's workload even more locked in. Those may be safe points to target if you wanted to punt WRs for your leverage, however we may find other options for low ownership in our RB finder:

The two teams most likely to rush a TD this week according to my algorithm are KC and Philly. Miles Sanders is right there on the value line and is an intruiging play, especially for 3 RB builds. I also see some value in either picking Mckinnon or Pacheco, where 40% and 20% respectively of the field are targetting them. This may be a good GPP opportunity if you can choose the right one (hoping it isn't CEH day..), and my lean is actually on Pacheco personally. Mahommes is banged up a little, and the Chiefs oline and dline should have advantages over Cincinatti, in a cold weather game. If things go as planned just maybe this saves money towards WR plays as well. Another interesting option would be to play both RBs vs Cinci, fade Mahommes and double stack QB elsewhere.

TE

Kelce is the best TE and the most owned TE on the slate. I'll never say not to play him. One thing to note is that he appeared on the injury report after practice, meaning there is some sort of concern regarding his back. Hayden Hurst and George Kittle are both viable pivots at half the ownership.

WR

Chase is a good WR1 and going to be owned in over half of all lineups. I think this is good chalk based on what we have seen so far so lets assume we can afford him. We still need two other pieces to this puzzle. On the cheap side, I am sorta eyeballing MVS, the weekly lineup killer who is cheap for his routes and targets. By now he should be in the shape of his life as he's been doing cardio during most of the games this season, and perhaps ready to catch a pass. The one concern not listed here is that Mecole Hardman may be back and he's better than MVS, IMO. Aiyuk and Devonta are also above the value trend line. Lets look at how the defense aligns to these receiving options:

Defense vs Position

CMC = fade at your own risk as hes a pass catching back in a good pass catching situation. Jauan Jennings is then in play too as a WR3 for SF in single digit ownership range.

Philly is likely to rely on their auxillary WRs to move the ball in the air - which appears to be Quez Watkins as WR3, in single digit ownership but also low usage. They could simply just look to overpower SF on the ground and play physical, yet I dont know if they really want that smoke from SF in return. Then we have the Chiefs in similar fashion. This is WR2 range, where targets favor MVS, but I believe Kadarius Toney to be the true WR2, if not WR1. That is interesting to see him at 16% as he is an X factor on the field. Love that as a play if it stays that way. As mentioned with QBs, you could for sure be different by targetting Mahommes + WR2 and WR3, while fading Juju and Kelce. That is a tall order but then again, defense aligns that way. Finally, we get the Bengals who can literally target Chase so I"m not even gonna talk about it. Perine is also intruiging due to pass catching RB abilities on 3rd down.

Vegas

I see potential for the Bengals / Chiefs game to go over the game total. The spread has moved around a bit so depending on where you got it, I think Chiefs can cover some of them such as the +1 line if you can find it (and if Kelce is OK). Philly/SF - I actually have tieing in regulation which is rare so I cant lean either direction. The game total is super close too, so perhaps the move is to take the points from the underdog and hope they dont lose by a FG in overtime :/

It would seem to show a slight bit of leverage in targetting some plays in the SF/Philly game as a result. Maybe its 1 or 2 low owned pieces or just a few extra players.

Projections

Burrow to Chase is the starting point to me without a doubt. Maybe even MVS as a secondary piece. There is also some intruiging leverage if you wanted to take the Chiefs defense. If you think Burrowhead is a real thing, let me intruduce you to some pissed off mofos on defense who are waiting to remodel it. Even if Burrow scores TDs, a few sacks or DST tds can smash value here.

Last Year's Results:

I figured it is worth taking a look at what happened here because quite frankly, 2 game builds are not like other slates. I was curious how folks got weird and what type of stacks were used. Fortunately we had KC vs CIN last year, and we had LAR vs SF, so 3 of the 4 teams returned. We had the 3rd best projected QB stacked with 2 pass catchers and no runback. Then we had a game stack featuring the RBs + DST on the same team, as well as RB + WR2 and all salary used to get there. However this lineup was not built in last year's milli maker. It looked like this:

That featured Tyreek and Kelce, with a dart in K Blanton who actually got work.

Summary

We walked through my thought train for the first time together. I am going to monitor leading up to game time what leverage might open up, but as of now may be based on lineup construction. Can a team or two get blown out? Any surprises we didn't think about? Which low owned play has the best chance of success? We are on the clock.

SF vs PHI Showdown

Looking at our first showdown game. As fate would have it, the value would sit with Philadelphia - and so does the ownership thanks to Jalen Hurts. His high usage in the offense is similar to what happens with CMC. You f around with a fade and find out what happens to your bankroll usually. Aiyuck is showing as the best value for his normal usage but I will probably prefer Kittle in a big game, as would any SF fan.

Jauan Jennings and Quez Watkins are interesting for darts according to this view. I may partake in one or the other. The higher odds of success are sitting with SF players and therefore I am likely to recommend 4 from that side of the game (as I recommend 4-2 builds).

When stacking PHI

Most of the strong leverage at Captain appears to be sitting with Goedert. Pairing with Hurts and Miles Sanders in the flex does make sense in that case. Then either paying up to AJ or down to a punt play would likely be how I approach that in these stacks.

When stacking SF

Purdy is likely the top captain play in this case, and stacking with Deebo and Aiyuck may pan out in this scenario. CMC has always caused my tools trouble because even though there is no leverge, his usage could end up making him the best captain on any slate. However I'm going to assume hes priced out of that being a smart play.

KC vs Cinci

So much of showdown is about finding the value for each buck, especially on DK. For example, I see MVS above the trend line and Juju outside of it. What that tells me is that if MVS actually does catch a long td, the savings there could not only leverage the 34% ownership on Juju, but also allow savings for another play somewhere. As fate would have it, Cinci as a team is showing higher success odds than KC, and therefore I may consider a 4 stack on that side potentially for leverage. KC does have its value options though so lets see how they stack up.

When stacking Cinci

Boyd and Burrow are going to be the best fit for captain leverage. Chase and Higgins otherwise look like solid plays for a 4 man stack and flex potential, although Hurst may make for more leverage than Higgins.

When stacking KC

Mahommes appears to be the best captain on the other side, with leverage on McKinnon, Juju and Kelce. Pacheco is also playable in the flex, and if skipping over someone like Kelcy, Toney or MVS then become extra leverage.

Good luck!