NFL Odds and Leverage for Draftkings - LAC vs CHI Showdown - Oct 2023

Before I begin, I need to ask a favor from all reading this. My startup business is a finalist in a pitch competition to win money. The money will help us expand on our educational 3D real world adventure game that teaches kids how to code (based on Kansas City landmarks!).

Coding is essentially what led me to creating these writeups to begin with -> and now we are trying to give that same skillset to middle school students using our 3D game. I am asking for you to like and reshare the video below, as that counts as a vote for us. This video is our pitch and a sample video of what we our game looks like, which is quite dope. To vote:

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Now, onto my free insights, which have quite frankly reached their peek effectiveness for those who played Thursday night showdown. Lets go situation by situation and find how we want to approach the slate!

Updated: 7:10 pm CST

Expectations vs Salary

In the past 5 weeks, Herbert has shown the ability to get to the most fantasy points on the slate, followed by Keenan. Last week, Foreman went off and that has increased his expectations and salry as well. Then on the cheap end, we see Evans and Scott and Spiller and Tonyan (blue dot) as options that could be slight value for cheap.

Vegas Expectations

I am seeing the win equity not so high for the Chargers when looking at projected score. However the spread is -9.5. I assume there are significant injuries or else I'd be looking specifically at Chicago to cover this game. Infact Fields is not in and a rookie is starting so that is why, although I wont write off Chicago just yet. If Chicago covers, the game likely goes over as well.

Game script

Both teams may have some ability to run the ball and both teams struggle against the pass. The Chargers are better equipped to pass the ball so I fully expect them to get their points. Neither team covers the RB out of the backfield well either, so Eckler is in play even more.

Defense vs Receivers

The passing should be there for Chicago as they see fit as the Chargers are below average against everything. Infact I'll say the same for the Chargers, with the addition of the deep ball being available.

When Chicago has the ball:

Update: Its very iffy to take a Chicago captain today. I'm doing 1 with the QB but not feeling great there.

Right now, there isnt much invidual guidance available outside of Foreman and thats just due to his usage in the offense. Otherwise there is some big leverage expected in the 200-400 range for flex plays. I'm personally going to take a shot on the backup QB in the captain spot because no one else wants to do it that way.

When the Chargers have the ball:

Herbert Capt actually may make sense. I'm also taking a chargers defense capt play.

From a usage perspective, Allen, Herbert and Ekeler look like they will be likely needed in some capacity today. Price wise likely hard to fit without diving deep in the cheap range.

Will see how this goes! I typically build a stack in both directions (2 lineups) and maximize the stack at 4 to 2 from the opposing team. Good luck and in the meantime, please like and share my facebook post!