NFL Odds and Leverage for Draftkings - Main Slate Week 7 - Oct 2023

Sorry its later than usual, but it has been a long weekend. Lets dive into the chart that help identify trends and situations that matter.

Updated: 8:00am CST

Showdown at the bottom of the page! Updated 6:58pm CST

Ceiings vs Salary

As much as it pains me to say this, we have to pay close attention to Justin Herbert, who has a decent sized ceiling vs the field, with low ownership showing. Today he gets a division rival in the chiefs who he has played well against before. Keenan Allen isnt far behind him either.

Sam Howell is likelky the best value QB from a usage perspective. We still must double check projections and game situations to make sure these guys make sense.

Summary of Situations

I will reference this summary a bit as I lay out the situations below. None of the game totals specifically projecting high on the main slate. However I will start with the Vegas projections first.

Vegas Projections

Green Bay vs Denver is showing the potential for the most points, with a GB win. That game is sketchy, but 2nd highest being the Chiefs and Chargers game, which does have lots of expected points and usage out there. Tampa vs ATL is one that looks fadable on the surface. Lets go position by position to see who stands out.

QBs

We talked about Herbert and Howell already. Others of interest may be Dobbs and Ridder for leverage. Then Lamar Jackson as well, due to their workloads over the last 5 weeks. Ridder may be cheap enough to get there but I certainly wont be stacking much in that game if I play that stack this week. Both Herbert and Mahomes are showing high usage, but Herbert may be the better workload value outside of projected team and individual points.

RBs

Barkley stands out against this field for his workload. Jacobs and Ekeler are both high usage plays beyond that, although workload value is not favoring Ekeler. At 9% ownerhip he is still intruiging though. Zach Moss continues to be a troll on this chart with the blue leverage dot.

WRs

Marquise Brown sticks out the most this week for his value on this chart. Most other names fall beneath the trend line for value and so I am going to favor RBs this week with high usage.

TEs

I've been chasing the Zach Erts big game for weeks but he has finally dropped off in his usage. Jonnu, Pitts and Kmet are the most intruiging here if the defense lines up well for the TE spot. Kelce is otherwise in a league of his own and always in play.

Defense vs Receivers

Kupp actually is in a good spot with the defense favoring the WR1 position. Jacobs is also in a good spot if the raiders pass to the RB out of the backfield today. Ertz is also in a good spot so I feel like I will call that out and play it some still. The Chiefs WRs all appear to be in good spots, but they are already in tough predictable spots. One thing to note is that Travis Kelce's situation isnt ideal, as the Chargers are strongest against the position. He still can beat them though as hes usually unstoppable with Taylor Swift behind him.

Ownership vs Team Points

Kenneth Walker is looking like he might have the highest ownership on the slate. From a team perspective, Det vs Bal and Buf vs New England and Atl vs TB are 3 games going underowned.

Projections

The situation behind Herbert's passing isnt ideal, but it is a situation that projects well for him and Allen and so my first lineup will begin with those two, maybe even with a Kelce runback.

I will only play one of the 5 defenses on the bottom of the screen. My first lean is to the Giants just due to the salary savings, but otherwise the Browns or Commanders might pan out too.

************************Miami Dolphins vs Philadelphia Eagles Showdown******************

This appears to be the big game of the week. You could argue they have the top offenses in each division. What about those defenses? Lets find out as we find our leverage and game scripts!

Expectations vs Salary

Updated: Claypool was added to the mix. I think I am liking the Swift + WR combo for Philly. Hard to say how they use Claypool but he is the clear value at that price.. Jeff wilson is also going to get touches for min price and we cant estimate his normal workload but he seems to be the backup with high value potential too.

Jalen Hurts has that top upside week in and week out. Tyreek is priced up there with him but not quite the same type of workload over the past 5 weeks. For the most part, Philly has a better value for their price points. I think this is going to force us to a cheap option. Interestingly the cheap guys are not all that great looking for expected points. Boston Scott looks to be the cheapest with vaue potential. Therefore a mid tier captain is likely required tonight to keep the lineup costs down.

Vegas projection

I have the game going over and the line pretty close to Vegas projections. Philadelphia should win this game, although I am unsure if either defense has truly been tested yet. The over might be safer than it appears. The spread is a risky bet imo, but I have Miami covering barely.

Game Script

It appears that Philadelphia defense is great against the run but bad against the past, which feels to favor Tua and a Receiver.

Miami is bad against the run and .. well Philly is a run team so theres that. They are also bad against the pass. The offensive line should be able to protect for Jalen more than Tua tonight when it comes to passing.

Defense vs Receivers

Miami looks to have a clear path to passing - the TE position. Is it Smythe? Philly ranks 32nd against the TE and so I will see who they have for receiving options next. Philadelphia could pass to the running back- where Swift is a high usage player anyways so I do have to say there is a captain potential with him specifically.

When Miami has the ball:

Waddle is starting to show as a high value play at captain. There are multiple high flex plays on the slate for Miami.

Tyreek is a viable captain based on his usage levels. However he is more leveraged in the flex. Julian HIll is the only other TE I see on the roster - projected less than a point.

When Philly has the ball:

Hurts capt and AJ capt are both now viable for some leverage.

AJ Brown is actually showing as a viable captain play which is interesting. Not a name I mentioned today in the writeup. Zaccheaus appears to hold the most leverage on the slate, while stoll is the cheap TE option that you hope for 2 pts from.