NFL Odds and Leverage for Draftkings Showdown - Bills vs Jets MNF- Sept 2023

After doing some data review, it seems that most insights using last year's data did not pan out. Some did such as the obvious Hill -> Tua stack, and the not so obvious Arizona Cardinals Defense play (1% owned), but hopefully we will get stronger when we swap to this year's data. I may be out of town this upcoming week so it may be week 3 before I can commit to that. Last night, I realized that one of the most predictive pieces of data I use are the oline vs dline matchups so I will peek at that in this writeup for sure. Onto the showdown for today!

Updated!

Odds vs Price

Updated: not a lot of changes here. I will say that Latavius Murray is sticking out as the most intruiging leverage play on the bottom.

Early sentiment suggests that the Bills will be the higher owned team for stacks, primarily because of Allen and Diggs, who have dominated in showdowns in captain and flex positions. Maybe it is still possible to do this, using some cheap plays and 4 jets elsewhere? We will know closer to lineup lock. Murray, Carter, and Sherfield will be the best of the cheap plays if they get carries or a goalline td tonight.

Vegas Expectations vs Mines

On the left, Vegas currently has the spread listed at +2.5 for the Jets. I think that line is very much in alignment with what I project as well. One detail though is that I have the game going under the implied total, like last night where the defense came into play. This is an important part of the story that may unfold (or not).

OL vs DL

In peeking at the oline vs dline data, both teams have strong run blocking and therefore I do expect that running backs will struggle today. Pass catching backs may have a better pathway to success. There is also a slight higher disadvantage to the Bills in the pass blocking, yet Josh Allen can scramble and negate that pressure.

Defense vs Receivers

Last year, the Jets were really strong against primary WR options, which is interesting. Maybe the WR3 will get extra looks if Diggs cant get open? Or Knox

Meanwhile the Bills have given up more opportunities to WR1 than anything, meaning Garret Wilson may find opportunities tonight if he and Rodgers are on the sae page. If you trust Rodgers on MNF with a new team, that could make an interesting side to stack heavier than Buffalo.

When Buffalo has the ball:

Update:

The work seems a bit more focused here and that makes me want to target the Bills more. There may be more opportunity playing Josh and Diggs in the flex space, if you think Diggs breaks through for a TD. The Jets have played him well since Sauce came to town. However Harty is showing the most leverage and 200 points so that is also interesting, especially if taking a Josh captain tonight to offset the leverage losses. It certainly doesnt feel like a ceiling game ahead fwiw.

I tend to look for 4 man stacks in showdowns. This data is likely too early to tell, but Shakir and Gabe are both intruiging when going 4 man stacks. Allen / Diggs/Cooks / Gabe captain is the most likely look at this early stage in the afternoon but that is likely to change. Weather is a factor as well so Bass is sorta off the board for me. Dalton Kincaid is the long shot dart at Captain if you want to jam em in flex.

When NY has the ball:

Updated: Lazard actually is now surfacing as a viable captain play. There are quite a few plays that fit this mold for the jets and therefore I'm not as interested in a Jets captain play as the Bills.

Rodgers is then your best bet at capt, yet you will share that ownership with many people. Then you'd likely want Garrett Wilson and 2 others in that build, based on the current outlook. I'd be looking to pair him up with a high leverage play if going that route, such as Uzomah if so.

Favorite Leverage? Murray, Harty. Fades? Breece Hall. Good luck!