NFL Odds and Leverage for Showdown - Titans vs Jaguars - Jan 7 2022

Lets look at this for the first time together! Jacksonville Jaguars vs Tennesee Titans part 2. Division matchups are fun because some of the advantages get taken away on the 2nd of the matchups. However it doesnt stop us from gaining an advantage on the tournaments we enter (GPP minded), which is why I build these pages. I will try to describe the charts as we go!

Updated! 7pm CST

Odds vs Salary

This first chart pins the salary vs the expected points of a player's workload over the last 6 weeks. The thing I like to look at here is the cheapest guys and the guys above the line, as they make up value and darts. Agnew and McMath look like darts and Trevor has upside potential. Put them together and you get a nice stack with ownership balance.

I see the bar charts at the bottom too, where Tennessee shows the most value while the odds on Jacksonville are much higher at this time (inactives may change this). As of now, I'm leaning Jags today for 4 players and 2 Titans run back.

Vegas

Here I compare the Vegas implied totals to my projected totals. I see a path for Jacksonville to go over their total and a path where Tennessee underperforms, assuming they can get pass pressure on the Titans. One thing that negates the pass pressure is whether or not Henry is successful running the ball so keep that in mind for matchups.

Snaps

Here are reported snap counts per player over the year. I am looking at Mcmath and Agnew in particular and they are both thin in snaps. Therefore its tough to expect much out of them but it only takes one td to reach value if you want a thin play.

Defense vs Receivers

Using this page, the ranks vs the different types of WRs sorta helps us figure out where the holes are in the defense. I think the Jags can hit any WR based on those rankings of Tennessee defense. There is somewhat a funnel to WR1 and TE for Tennessee so Woods (assumed) and Chig or Hooper would be good picks.

Projections

Interestingly theres a guy named Snoop showing as potential cheap leverage. He projects to 1 point so I dont know that I would recommend that. Henry is stronger in flex while Trevor is stronger at Captain as of now for top plays.

When targetting Jacksonville

Trevor and Zay and Engram all look like they can carry some captain leverage today as pass catchers. I'm sorta leaning Zay personally, but Engram is showing a bit stronger for now.

When targetting Tennessee

Chig makes for the best captain plays from Tennessee as of now. I'm about to build this right now with all 4 of these Titans in a lineup.