NFL Odds and Leverage Rd 2 - Draftkings Main Slate - Jan 2022

There are several slates to choose from today but I've decided that I would focus on getting some content out for the 4 gamer on draftkings. In this writeup, I'm pulling data and showing you my process of player evaluation with the milli maker / GPP in mind.

Last updated: Powerbi charts at 12:10 CST

Ceiling Evaluation

In this first pass, I am looking for players who have had the highest ceilings. Note this is the last 5 weeks of the regular season and a few teams include the wildcard round. The Bengals offense in general seems to have the highest ceiling in this span. Dak is not far behind but has a significantly smaller ownership expectation than those in his area. I underlined the top owned play at each position and then tried to identify potential pivots based on ownership. CMC is the only one I couldnt find a decent pivot to (where the savings at ownership feel worth it). We can look further as we get into the positional breakdown.

QB

Per QB situations, Mahommes is slightly above the field, facing Jacksonville and ownership is showing as such. Looks like Burrow could be half the ownership of Allen and Mahommes so he's in pivot territory. Josh Allen has the highest ceiling otherwise, while Dak seems to be lingering as a potential leverage play on Burrow, in addition to your best value play. Brock Purdy usage is still actually quite low, in part due to the rushing nature of this team. He has the lowest ownership expectation on the slate for QB, but isnt entirely showing as the best of values when compared to Dak. Lets look closer at QB situations:

The Giants/Philly game seems to have some merit, but from a usage perspective, the 5 names above are the only ones who stand out. None of their passing situations feel great, so it may come down to game plan and the WRs you wish to stack with your QB.

RB

CMC will have highest ownership and expectations on the slate for RBs. I dont see a way to pivot off of him at the position unless punting for WR payups. Mixon is floating up top as the next closest play. The problem is that he hasnt done anything of fantasy relevance. This data pulls his last 5 games so his opportunity is showing as present, but he seems to be inefficient and now with a worse offensive line than before. Elliot is also showing as single digit ownership in the playoffs. He should also be well rested because he really hasnt done much either. I am not sure I go there but lets see more detail about rushing situations.

It would seem that SF, Philly, and maybe KC could see a rushing TD today per my secret formula for predicting rushing TDs. Cincinatti is on the list while Dallas is not, and thats cool, because if I play Dak, I may not want to get to Elliot or Pollard with him.

WR

Chase is way above the field in expected points and therefore I want to play him despite his ownership, but still looking for pivot opportunity. Similarly priced but 1/3 of the ownership is Devonta Smith and that is intruiging so I am definitely playing him. AJ Brown could also just go off too as no one can cover that guy. Otherwise the Jacksonville WRs are showing some value. Gabe Davis is also starting to show up in terms of usage too, but projecting really high ownership and that is something I am prepared to fade. A chalky Davis is the last thing you ever want to deal with. Check below for more insight on WR situations

TE

The Kelce price and ownership make him a tough decision today. Either play him or don't, but if you do, its likely sucking your value out and you are expecting a big game in that case to bury those who fade. I will not prioritize Kelce but if I have remaining salary, I'll get there. Otherwise TE is a position I love to pivot with. Off the top rope is Kittle showing single digit ownership and low value. He needs to score to pan out but for pivots he has decent upside to me.

Defense vs Receivers

As fate would have it, Kelce is infact in a good spot hah. TE vs Jags is ranked 32nd in DVOA. WR1 vs Chiefs is ranked 31st, if that is Zay Jones or Kirk. The WR3 for Dallas is also unknown but Gallup may show up if it is him. The SF WR situation is also weird. Deebo should be WR1, but yet his usage in the offense is unclear as to how DVOA will categorize him. If you can figure out the WR2 situation there, it may be beneficial (him or Aiyuck..)

Vegas odds vs My Team Totals

The Buffalo Cinci game may be able to put up the most points. I see a path to where the other games under perform. It also seems as though SF can carry the Dallas game in terms of points so the Dallas stack is a bit more scary. Lets see how ownership aligns to these totals:

It would seem that the Dallas/SF game is going underowned for its potential, and therefore I am thinking the SF situation is a bit more important. I am likely to take a chance with the dart Dak lineup with a runback and hope they overproduce.

Projections and Leverage

Defenses are tricky today. I dont have a strong take on it right now, but maybe I take a shot with the Bengals defense at low cost. KC defense may also be in play.

Summary

Here is the summary of situations. I'd love to play a Philly RB today based on the situation, and maybe set up RBs first as getting them right is typically the key to success. Don't forget to like my post if this helps you!