NFL Odds and Leverage - Week 18 Main Slate - Draftkings and Fanduel

Final week and this is messy. My tools cant predict how much playing time someone will get so keep that in mind as we go through the charts. The idea is to find leverage for GPP entries by highlighting the plays in good spots and usage but low owned.

Ceilings vs Salary

This week is extremely compromised as I am forced to look at the last 6 weeks to ensure I get 5 games with the Bills in the sheet. Allen then becomes top ceiling assuming they playa full game. Burrow is also a low owned top QB for his ceiling. Justin Jefferson is up top for WRs. Ekeler is low owned and under McCaffrey. TE will take some searching since Kelce isnt on this slate. When a player is above the trend line that indicates value for the ceiling. The darker dots indicate a good projection on the player. Onto the positional breakdown!

QB

There are lots of guys I dont recognize at the bottom of the barrel. Shoutout to Brady for coming through last week. Unfortunately his position is skewed to include everything that led to him last week. No one is going there due to sitting concerns and sub 5% means hes intruiging if they do play a full game. David Blough also appears to have some value appeal at no ownership. To go a step further in our selection, I'll reference the QBs that are in good spots below:

I tried to circle guys who hit multiple categories that lead to success. The most important to me is usage so Allen, Brady and Hurts are my top QBs. For value, maybe Rodgers and Purdy make sense at the position. Then finally the dart QBs for me would be Watson and Wilson at 5% or less ownership (leaning Watson over Wilson).

RB

Cincinatti and Dallas seem to highlight the value at this RB position based on last 6 weeks of usage. This is a position to reference rest status with for sure. I was wrong on Jacobs yesterday as he was full rest mode and rightfully low owned. Mixon may be in a meaningful game with seeding on the line. I dont know what the Bucs are doing today so therefore Fournette looks high risk despite the value showing. Lets look at rushing situations to pair this chart with:

The bottom line mentions the teams who could see a good rushing day. Baltimore and Carolina are at the top. Dobbins is out and therefore a backup could be a good play here. Foreman and Hubbard are both low owned so maybe that is fun. Philadelphia rushing is interesting but due to Hurts and the team of rushers, I dont think I want to touch that. Otherwise not a ton of teams facing weak defenses that have a rushing boost per my calculations. Perhaps will pay up for WR if not the Cinci and Dallas backs.

WR

The WR position has value with the Jets, Minn and Buffalo WRs. Jefferson may be chasing records and money today so I dont mind paying up for him. Keenan Allen going under owned tells me hes either a rest risk or simply a guy you need to play at his usage. Garrett Wilson will get Flacco back, who likes to throw short passes to the RBs but PPR may be good for Wilson points. Check this with the "Defense vs Receivers" section below for more clarity.

TE

This looks great to me, as it screams play Hockenson today. I will unless they are a rest risk, which there is- yet I'm still taking a chance here. Otherwise anyone in single digit ownership that also falls in the below table is in play as well (if they are above the trend line).

Defense vs Receivers

Look at column AA on this table to identify the situation that benefits the offense (column A) the most. Some funnels exist, and it provides insights to how projections are coming in.McCaffrey and Jefferson appear to have the top projections on this page. Chubb isnt much of a pass catcher and therefore his funnel isnt all that great. There is also a sharp funnel vs Seattle where WR2 is ranking dead last in coverage. If thats Van Jefferson in LA, then he could be a weird dart that pans out.

I'll likely rally around the receivers who play on teams that I like the QB this week (circled above).

Vegas

Left of the black divider is the vegas expectation, and on the right of it are my projected totals if they played a regular game. Buffalo does project to go 4 tds today and therefore Allen does appear like a good place to start a lineup.

Summary

If you'd like to find other situations to target, this chart will help show all the usage value on the slate, along with good situations for QBs and RBs. At the very bottom, we can also see some offensive line vs defensive line matchups as to where advantages are. Philly rushing is just a tad bit more interesting since they may also produce turnovers, with advantages at the offensive line.

Projections and Leverage

Here are my top 5 projected plays at each position. Once again, note that rest and misaligned positions (wr1 vs wr2) could lead to a different name being in a good spot. Good luck this weekend!