NFL Odds and Strategy for the Bills vs Bengals Showdown - Draftkings Jan 2022

Welcome - You now have access to my DFS analysis, which focuses on NFL odds and ownership for the upcoming Cincinnati Bengals vs Buffalo Bills game. In this post, I'll be taking a closer look at the Vegas expectations and comparing them to my own projections for the game. I'll also be examining factors, like defense, snaps, and usage that can contribute to your leverage spot in the tournament. By the end of this analysis, you should have a better understanding of how to use those NFL odds for this matchup and be able to make more informed decisions about your bets and DFS lineups.

Updated: 7:03 pm CST Projections

Odds vs Salary:

Update: Ownership is still pretty close and value at the cheapest end is nothing more than dart worthy today. Perine and Knox are both showing some form of leverage and the TE position in general isnt getting a ton of ownership. Chase is also high level leverage at some level too.

Before we dive into the specifics of the matchup, let's first consider the overall odds and salary expectations for the game. According to the latest Vegas lines, the Bills are currently favored to win by 1 point. This means 2 things:

1. The Bills will have the most ownership

2. The Bengals will have the most value

In terms of salary expectations, the top players for both teams are expected to command high prices in DFS contests. For the Bengals, quarterback Joe Burrow and wide receiver Jamar Chase are likely to be among the highest-priced options. On the Bills side, quarterback Josh Allen and wide receiver Stefon Diggs are expected to be among the most expensive players. Basd on where they fall in the chart, Diggs has the least amount of value per his recent workload in the last 5 games, yet we must consider weather and game scripts he has faced as well.

On the cheaper side, we do not have as many good dart plays as previous weeks at the sub $2k salary range. Therefore a balanced lineup may be required, if not using multiple $2k guys in the build.

Vegas Expectations vs My Vegas Projections:

Now that we've established the basics of the odds and salary expectations, let's take a closer look at the Vegas expectations for the game and compare them to my own projections. According to the Vegas lines, the Bills are currently favored to win by 1 point. However, after analyzing the matchup, I have the Bengals winning by a slightly narrower margin of 1 point, with a 47 point (under) total.

There are a few reasons for this discrepancy. First, the Bengals have a strong defense that has been performing well this season. They rank in the top 10 in the league in both yards allowed per game and points allowed per game, and they should be able to contain the Bills' high-powered offense. Additionally, the Bengals have a solid running game led by running back Joe Mixon, which should help to control the clock and keep the Bills' offense off the field.

Defense vs Receivers:

Another key factor to consider in this matchup is the defense versus receivers. Both the Bengals and the Bills have strong passing attacks, with solid quarterback play and talented receivers. However, the Bengals have the edge in terms of their defense, which appears to take away the opposing team's WR1 / primary receiving option well. This means that Allen is more likely to scramble and/or hold the ball longer than required by the Bengals. Diggs is still good enough to make plays, but perhaps this option is only one I will take if there is leverage in doing so.

Snap Counts:

Snap counts are primarily important when figuring out which cheap value plays have potential. If a dart play is averaging at least 20 snaps (and running routes), then this is an ideal candidate for a low owned play. For example, I see Michael Wilcox is on the field for 40 and 50 snaps, which is significant. If he gets route participation, he immediately becomes a good play, and that is something you can see in the player logs as far as targets are concerned.

Projections and Leverage

Updated: Looking at leverage for capt vs flex, not a ton has changed. I hope for 1 more update today. I did add in usage though to see which plays are potential slate breaking despite leverage: Allen, Chase and Mixon are those guys where you can ignore leverage.

Once you have reviewed the player projections, the next step is to determine how to leverage them to maximize your potential returns. The leverage changes and hopefully sharpens up closer to lineup lock than early morning but we can get an idea now.Any cheap play under 5k is going to have some form of levarage unless the field goes to the same guy. Maybe Hurst is our top cheap option as of now.

When Stacking the Bengals

Updated: Burrow is my top play on this side of the ball for Captain. I see a potential stack to Chase or Mixon in flex, but then you likely would need a Boyd and/or Hurst to make this work.

When it comes to betting on the Cincinnati Bengals, there are a few key things to keep in mind. First, it's important to pay attention to the team's injury reports, as key players being out can have a significant impact on the team's performance. An hour before game time I should have these charts updated to reflect inactives. Burrow may just be a top option for a Captain spot as of now, with Boyd in the flex.

When Stacking the Bills

Updated: Its Gab for me on this side of the ball for captain. I'm only playing a single dart large field GPP and he is the guy. Diggs typically ends up being the guy on showdown slates though so that is scary as well.

When betting on the Buffalo Bills, there are a few key factors to consider. Price is the number 1 factor and therefore Allen is unlikely to pan out at Captain unless you fade the primary receiving options. Kickers also seem to be in play for a flex spot today.

Conclusion

In conclusion, there are many factors to consider tonight while betting or building lineups for this NFL game, and understanding how to navigate the field can be crucial for maximizing your chances of success. By considering factors such as player odds and leverage, you can go from bottom to top of the leaderboards rather