NFL Saturday Slate - Draftkings and Fanduel Dec 16 2022

We have a pretty weird three game slate that I wanted to play so why don't we all play! This is just a data dump for now, but I will add commentary later.

Update! Showdown content below

6:20 pm CST

Odds vs Salary

This is a weird one. Allen with the highest chance of putting up the points but the weather may slow him down. Then we get Cousins and Jefferson both below him with the next set of chalk ceilings. I am pretty sure that will be the top owned stack which means it will require some leverage management if playing that one. Then we see Tua on a 3 game slate, in single digit ownership, but also in a weather game... Taylor likely dominates the ownership and RB position, with Hockenson as the highest owned TE. How do we leverage this? Onto the positional!

QB

This is an intruiging late because you can make a case for any QB on it, even the below the line plays with less value. Weather vs ownership is the game this week. Allen is clearly the best play although at a price slightly higher than the rest. I'm going to try something with Matt Ryan today... seems like a good spot for a 'F* around and find out' meme.. I cant believe it, but I do like his pass catchers and the lack of weather both.

RB

Jonathan Taylor is the chalk of the day and chalk of the slate. Should we though? I actually think that Minnesota defense is a strong play that could limit Taylor's touches. However if Minn defense fails, hopefully its because Matt Ryan found a way to move the ball to Taylor and to Pittman. Otherwise Dalvin Cook is super intruiging this week due to the run game boost. Chubb is kinda over priced so I may fade.

This part of my page usually comes later but what you see here are the teams that I think can get extra rushing opportunity on line 3. Miami, Baltimore and Minnesota. One of those 3 will likely produce a winner. Dalvin Cook now becomes my favorite play on the slate for runners with all that said. Dobbins and maybe Jeff Wilson will get some mix (if Jeff is playing).

WR

On the top end, Tyreek is in a good spot. He has beaten this Buffalo defense at least 2 games in a row now, once with Miami and then once in the KC/Buffalo playoff game come in to mind. Now we get some weather and his ownership drops. Do cheetah's like the snow? We will once again F around and find out. Amari Cooper doesn't project well in my system but his workload puts him into play. Donovan Peoples Jones actually projects better vs the defense at slightly less but similar usage/same ownership. The flip side of that game has Robinson and Dunvernay in intruiging spots as well. Pittman is one of my top projected WRs on the slate so I'm going to hope him and Matt Ryan get along and fix their issues if they exist.

TE

I always punt TE so seeing TJ Hockenson is indeed in the best spot with usage, while carrying 51% of the field with him makes me sick. I know Knox has some decent projections but you sincerely need him to land in the endzone and make a snow angel today based on his usage over the last 5 weeks. Njoku usage makes him playable, especially in a Watson stack if you get there. Jelani Woods is also intruiging but not sure hes healthy as they havent used him the last couple weeks.

Fanduel Value proposition

I'd say that Tyreek makes for a decent pivot opportunity off of Jefferson on the fanduel side of things, although both are a bit under the salary schedule. Kirk Tua Cousins then look like the value QBs on Fanduel. Intruigingly Gabe davis is projecting as higher owned than Diggs today so going there is ok while risky to me. Singletary may also be a value pivot from Taylor, 2000 cheaper for slightly less usage in a weather game at half the ownership.

Vegas vs My Totals

What if the fields are clean? Buffalo and Miami would go over their vegas totals along with Baltimore and Cleveland.

Baltimore Vs Cleveland could be very intruiging to get players from since it is later, but miami vs buffalo is the top expected with less than owned players. Very curious how bad that weather is to cause that.

Summary

Will be looking at RBs from Miami, Baltimore and Minnesota first.

The most obvious game is obvious because of weather vs dome expectations, which means the crowd will join you on them skill plays no matter what you do there.

Projections

Surprised that Pittman is the top Fanduel WR projected on the slate. That makes me happy enough to play him heavily. Maybe even Matt Ryan as a pivot off Taylor unless you want to pair them and hope for receiving TD to Taylor today.

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I didnt want to start a new page for this as I'm short on time, but here are some notes:

I see Allen up top and Diggs/Hill with him. I also see Alex Ingold as a long shot dart that may help fit some high priced plays together. Jeff Wilson is out FYI.

Vegas

I think the spread is right. If there is breakaway in the weather, the game can go over the total. I wouldnt be surprised if that happens with the speed of the WRs out there.

Projections

When Buffalo stacks are being played:

Gabe Davis or Diggs for Captain? Theres a little more leverage with Gabe so I am leaning there. Josh Allen makes a better flex than captain with the prices out here.

When Miami Stacks are being played:

I will say that I believe only Hill or Waddle will make the winning lineup today. The chart I posted earlier shows Hill (WR1) being a sweet spot, but price may or may not let you get there. There are some large leverage darts you will likely need to fall in the endzone if they are to pan out (Ingold, Smythe, Wilson). All 3 make sense as flex plays considering the price points on this slate.