NFL Showdown - Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots - Draftkings December 1 2022

Tonight we get a division matchup with some interesting decision points ahead. If I havent stated this before, I tend to stick to a script with all my lineups. It burns sometimes but when it works, I'll see yall at the top.

Updated: 4:35 CST

Salary based Expectations

Going into the day, I thought I'd have a clear path to stacking the Bills. Then I swapped to New england because of the value. And now I'm back to thinking Bills. The main reason being that the ownership is higher on New England than I anticipated. Still may be a path to a New England stack but will wait and see.

The one thing that really stands out here is that JJ Taylor has had some opportunity for the price in recent weeks. With Harris out and him at $200 I can see myself playing him once just in case something happens.

Update!

JJ was moved to practice squad.

Vegas

Surprisingly seems that New England can cover, thanks to home field advantage and the Bill's having 3 games in a row on the road. Division matchups are always closer than they should be as well. I also have a slight lean to the over.

Snaps

Taylor hasnt really had anything to show for since Week 9 so he is extremely high risk now that I see this. We may need to see the inactives report to determine if he's viable.

Defense vs Receivers

There are some very distinct funnels in each defense tonight and that helps shape our lineup construction. For Buffalo, going WR2 or TE and then for New England, its WR1 and RB for points.

Projections and Leverage

The game is close enough to where I may try to build one lineup for both teams. Hopefully later today the leverage starts to shape up a more clearer picture, but I am likely starting the day with one stack of each team, and a slight lean to New England since they are underdogs.

The real concern is the odds are low enough on New England in expected points that it will be difficult to not hold onto a 5-1 Bills stack in the event its a massacre.

Lets see how things shape out the rest of the day and build some lineups!