NFL Showdown - Chargers vs Colts - Dec 26 2022

Yesterday wasnt the best football day as I didnt have the time to invest in updates. Today we are back. Lets see what this Chargers/Colts game is really about.

Last updated: 6:20 pm CST

Salary vs Expectations

Eckeler has the highest expectations on the slate with a potential for slightly less ownership than Herbert. Keenan Allen comes in right behind them and then things drop off to Pittman. Those names everyone will get a combo piece of as they combine for almost 200% ownership. On the lower end things are interesting where I see Parham and Mo-Allie who may reach value for cheap. Value for them is usually 1 or 2 catches for 10 yards, but if they happen to get a TD they show you fire in DK. TE and RB appear to be the underowned positions but it is early as I type this. Keep all that in mind when we look at snaps and the defensive holes!

The team leverage is actually about even although there may be more value in stacking the LAC side. It may just come down to who you choose for your captain really.

Snaps

Seems both of those dart plays have some potential (one or the other) due to the amount of salary you may need for top plays today. Things like ownership and status change leading up to lineup so you may want to look at that closer to lineup lock.

Defense vs Receivers

It seems that pass catching backs happen to be a weakness for the Colts. I'm sure they will adjust somehow to improving on that vs Ekeler right? Kinda the "you have one job" situation, but will they do it? Indy will likely want to go towards aux WRs which could be Campbell or Dulin or who knows - maybe two TE sets as both teams suck vs TEs. Enter the potential for Mo Allie.

Vegas vs My Calculated Team Totals

If this game were played in normal conditions, it seems that the game should go over its Vegas totals. With end of the year and injuries, I dont necessarily trust it but I do consider it. The Colts could cover if they knew what they were doing because the Chargers defense isnt that great. Also a quick note; the early line on Thursday nights game could go under if you wanted to bet that before the total drops.

Projections

Heres a rundown of the guys expected to succeed from top to bottom. As of now, Either Herbert or Pittman may be my two favorite captain spots. I wont rule out Foles either as a potential captain today if avoiding the run situation altogether. I always start with 4-2 stacks in mind so likely will pick a side + a captain using the next two views:

If stacking the Colts:

Foles is the starter, which makes this a wildcard team in general.. will they move to gun slinging or stick to the run game? I am not sure, but I do see Moss has more leverage for now as a flex than Deon. Both are viable, yet Campbell has more leverage so I am leaning that direction in a 4 stack, if not playing the Kicker.

If stacking the Chargers:

Herbert makes sense for a captain play but wont be low owned in doing so. Ekeler could also dominate the work if the chargers get up, but certainly wont be low owned as a Captain while eating your salary. The prices will make it difficult to get to the chargers for 4 plays without going with a cheap WR for your captain. To me, that is too thin of an option unless you can say for sure you have the one WR who catches 2 TDs today. I think Herbert has options to spread it out and therefore I'm not sure I will do that in my primary lineup.

Yesterday's large field winning lineup:

Just wanted to break down what it took to be 1 of the 7 to win:

1. a 4-2 stack. this is a stack type that I play almost every time because most people naturally play 3-3 stacks. 4-2 wins quite often. 5-1 also wins

2. The stack had 0 leverge at captain. I typically play for leverage all around and that doesnt work out many weeks. Last night is an example where the Captain was not unique. Instead the construction + the low owned play (Dortch was)

3. If you look at the stack closely, you will see they stacked 4 of the highest probability plays from one side (QB + RB1 + WR1 + K) and then 1 high probability play (Conner) + a low probability/low owned play (Dortch) from the opposite side.

This piece of clarity is mainly needed because I talk about all the players who are leverage in my writeups but sometimes forget to mention that you usually only need 1 or 2 low owned / leverage plays in a lineup to make it happen. It is unlikely to single ship when there is less leverage but winning doesnt always have a chance at being that unique either when the top plays are the popular ones.

Check back later for updates!