NFL Showdown - Green Bay Packers vs LA Rams - Dec 19 2022

We got about 2 hrs to get this right! Lets do it.

Odds vs Salary

There is some value in the rams camp somewhere. A guy named Tutu..Malcolm Brown both look like they are pushing that total up. Are they in good spots? We will find out. Rams are on schedule to lose but maybe one of those value pieces help fit the necessary top plays of Green Bay!

Vegas

The game is likely cold and it is in Lambo so that likely is why the game is low on expectations. However if everyone is healthy, I have this game total going way over its implied total, and that is in part due to the Rams covering. Maybe Baker is better than we think? (prolly not :p ) This alone has me looking at how I might play 4 Rams tonight (maybe). Honestly I may do one lineup that stacks both teams just because I hate getting that part wrong.

Defense vs Receivers

It is interesting when Aaron Jones appears to be the top owned play against the Rams who are a funnel defense to the pass. One thing I am likely to do is fade Aaron Jones for that reason. However Rams wise, we have some very sharp plays to avoid - WR2 and WR3. Who are they? I dont know hah. Higbee seems to be in the best position, and then maybe RB and WR1. The packers have pretty strong plays at WR1 and WR2 and maybe TE. If I go RB, maybe I go with the one who could catch some passes out of the backfield.

Projections

What we have here is the highly projected Jones at the top of the chart in price and expectation. However the points dont drop off as fast as the price does around Watson, Dillion. Leverage also goes up around that point too.

When Stacking GB

It seems that things will cost you quite a bit when stacking GB. The bottom of the barrel for flex spots is interesting. There are also quite a few guys with a high probability of reaching an optimal level score. This may require something intruiging like Lazard Captain to really gain leverage. Rodgers is viable as well but its a much thinner play right now.

When Stacking LAR

This side is slightly more appealing if my Vegas projection of the over hitting becomes true. At least if it hits because of the Rams covering, that makes them more appealing. Higbee might be the captain I go with on this side of the fense. Baker is also playable at captain for a lil thinner decision. And then... we gotta think about Tutu which is just weird.

Good luck if I dont get to update this again tonight!