NFL Showdown - Miami Dolphins vs LA Chargers - Dec 11 2022

Odds vs Salary

Ekeler is surprisingly not the highest owned play on the slate, seeing his usage over the last 5 weeks is the highest. Infact the Chargers are showing more value as a team, likely cheaper due to being underdogs. However Miami seems to show as a little underowned a team in comparison to their odds of success. Therefore I dont have a stand just yet as to which stack makes the most sense.

Vegas

Vegas says 55 total points, but my sheet has this game possibly going under by 5 which means that someone could under perform expectations. I have Miami winning but its close. It makes me want to target the Chargers more when it gets this close.

Defense vs Receivers

Neither team favors the WR2 which is interesting. Everything else is wide open here. Trent Sherfield back to back tds maybe?

Projections

This is my old excel sheet - trying something new to highlight what is happening here. As usual I recommend stacking at least 4 from one team for differentiation purposes. Then top to bottom, you can determine where you want to place them based on leverage projections.

If Stacking LAC

Herbert/Ekeler/Allen make sense for pieces. On the right side, we can see where some Captain leverage options may exist. Likely a charger WR at captain for me.

If Stacking MIA

The Miami side has 5 primary options and I think having 4 of them make sense. Perhaps getting to Tua or Waddle at captain make the most sense, but I'm not quite feeling that approach as much as an LAC captain in large fields.

For the old school crowd

Good luck