NFL Showdown Odds and Leverage for Draftkings - Chi vs Was - Oct 5 2023

Theres a guy in the NFL head office drafting up schedules, and he thought this was a good matchup to feature in primetime. FIRE HIM! Without Draftkings money involved, there is absolutely no way we would watch some of these games.

Now that I got that off my chest, lets take a look at what we need to do to win a gpp. Thats always my goal and so consider that as I show you angles for a top 1% finish. You know you are doing something right when you can land either in the top 5% or bottom 5%. Middle of the pack just doesnt have that equity you want. Thats why I go chart by chart and find the things that stand out the most. Lets get it.

Updated: 7:05pm CST

Salary Based Expectations

This is the type of slate I like, where there is a clear cheap guy not getting a ton of ownership, mixed with clear expectations of the QB up top. Both QBs are looking like they get the most work in on their teams. Then we have 3 TEs who seem to get targetted often here. Just maybe a sign that bad QBs rely on their TE a bit extra. Essentially any play above the trend line is considered a value for that price based on the workload they have seen to date. Mix the value with the potential that will be shown below to build a solid liineup. As of now, Washington appears to have less ownership than their odds are showing, granted they are the more owned stack.

Vegas Projections

I do not factor in injuries or weather when I project the potential totals of each team. I am looking at this game (after fixing some issues below) and seeing that Washington should cover the spread and potentially exceed the game total so those are my leans. Therefore I'll likely get to a 4-2 Washington stack today.

Oline vs Dline

Looking at how the teams matchup, there is an interesting issue brewing in Chicago where they let everyone through to the QB. That provides me with more of a lean when stacking Washington today. Pass pressure leads to potential points for your team.

Defense vs Receivers

Sadly both of these teams have been good (top 10) vs the TE position. That hurts the Cody play. However if we can spot who the WR3 is for Chicago (projected Claypool, but he's ruled out), and the RB for Washington who is most likely to catch passes from the backfield, then we may have some big time advantges. Infact WR1 vs chicago has also been fruitful so Mclaurin is interesting for that.

When Chi has the ball:

Update: could see Kmet at captain but thats about it on the Chi side. I dont like it.

It is probably a bit too early to take a stand on leverage, but some interesting things we can do here. As stated I am interested in starting with a Chicago stack, and WR3 is an ideal spot. Can we look at this St Brown and hope he gets a long td? May need to monitor his snap count and air yards to see if that can happen.

When Was has the ball:

Dotson, maybe Howell, and then... Dyami Brown for the long shot GPP play at captain. Lots of flex options here otherwise.

One way you could get some intruiging leverage with a Washington stack is by taking Howell at captain. There are bonus points here if you get to Cole Turner in the flex, who isnt projected to do anything. However his workload says that he could reach value, especially if Logan Thomas doesnt do anything.

Check back later for updates!